tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16084898542197175942024-02-23T03:43:38.373-05:00Vodka & EquationsJust my thoughts.NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.comBlogger68125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-63219163445149379832021-01-30T17:14:00.002-05:002021-01-30T17:14:33.553-05:00Powerful Fools are Dangerous Fools; Bring on the Wellerman [TPaS0]<p> So,</p><p>It used to be that I wrote regularly. Ideas would bounce around in my head, and the only way to get some respite was to put my thoughts in writing. It would seem that as I've aged and achieved more meaningful work that I have less mental real estate for writing, and the ideas that bounce around my head are technical and not as good for a broad audience. I still think Rh could make for a good internal standard for ICP-OES, but that's another topic for another day.</p><p>So as it gets farther between posts, the world changes, and my life changes, I'm not sure there's as much purpose for a blog like this. I care, and agree, so much less with what I've written in the past (particularly my attitudes towards proper citation, jeez). Much of what I've written now strikes me as having been written by a younger, more naive man. But then January 2021 happens, and I know that writing will help.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cA3XTYfzd1I" width="320" youtube-src-id="cA3XTYfzd1I"></iframe></div><div><br /></div>2016 was a rough year for me. I watched two improbable back-to-back elections that reflected a world and a mindset that I didn't know existed. The Brexit election was followed by Trump's election and the "alt right" was either born or emboldened. I saw neither coming. <div><br /></div><div>"Why," I asked, "would the UK separate from an organization that creates and enforces the trade rules that the UK will necessarily be governed by? Why voluntarily surrender votes in an organization that governs your <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/#:~:text=The%20EU%2C%20taken%20as%20a,2002%20to%2043%25%20in%202019.">largest trading partners</a>?"</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, why does anyone do anything?</div><div><p>Britons were <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3be49734-29cb-11e6-83e4-abc22d5d108c">tired of listening to experts</a>. They wanted to fund the NHS instead of the EU, so much so, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=brexit+bus+nhs">that they wrote it on a bus</a>. And strangest of all, people I knew and whose opinions I deeply respect agreed. I heard that it was about time, and they'd been getting shafted for years.</p><p>It was also in this period immediately following the Brexit vote that we found ourselves at the beginning of a four year slog. The morning after, the day of the video linked above, suddenly the rhetoric from people like Farage softened. Prime Minister after Prime Minister fell, as did every attempted deal, until finally. <i>Finally</i>. They reached a deal that the EU could accept, which maintained most of what the EU wanted, because they were by far the Goliath in the trade negotiations. Meanwhile, r/leopardsatemyface was brought to my attention, where people relished in the schadenfreude of those who proclaimed "this isn't the Brexit I voted for!"</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpTVmzpZsGfsWzKTwBkh7qxkUooOMhbYJ0K0vYpwlqDUgTKggvTlAVf9oa9gSveme06EDzGbgSvFF3is_AOw5_ceuBJXN__QM4bnrqERYcvHt8FP7u3G_8cuMeMNXm5-1mYCCxZkiGQ8c/s1024/49435036246_4f2fa82de1_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="1024" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpTVmzpZsGfsWzKTwBkh7qxkUooOMhbYJ0K0vYpwlqDUgTKggvTlAVf9oa9gSveme06EDzGbgSvFF3is_AOw5_ceuBJXN__QM4bnrqERYcvHt8FP7u3G_8cuMeMNXm5-1mYCCxZkiGQ8c/w400-h272/49435036246_4f2fa82de1_b.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div>The Brexit deal many didn't vote for. <span style="font-size: x-small;"><a data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/49707497@N06/49435036246" rel="noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">"Prime Minister Boris Johnson signs the Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union"</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;"> </span><span data-v-e1c1f65a="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;">by <a data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/49707497@N06" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">UK Prime Minister</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;"> is licensed under </span><a class="photo_license" data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/?ref=ccsearch&atype=rich" rel="noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">CC BY-NC-ND 2.0</a></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><p>To be clear, I think the UK will be all right in the longer term. Right now there are shortages of fresh vegetables on shelves, truckers are facing massive border delays, and fortunes will be accrued and lost as a new reality imposes itself. But people will live, love, and die just as they always have. It's just a sudden, and baffling change.</p><p><i>Meanwhile...</i></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ4Xpogy8UyzLVpN8qLl0vcNeGNfOfWrQLG9yF-uWqHvYeqYUuXHypWBi8_P-a6WofWP-vJvX5NycHCXVHxtMjulXp_LaqD4Qvh591W-vVXHJQK_tV_JdM-OpdtgKN1WrRyAhLjNwXq7E/s1024/30363514252_f84b6091fd_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="1024" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ4Xpogy8UyzLVpN8qLl0vcNeGNfOfWrQLG9yF-uWqHvYeqYUuXHypWBi8_P-a6WofWP-vJvX5NycHCXVHxtMjulXp_LaqD4Qvh591W-vVXHJQK_tV_JdM-OpdtgKN1WrRyAhLjNwXq7E/w400-h266/30363514252_f84b6091fd_b.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/24653767@N06/30363514252" rel="noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">"Donald Trump Rally 10/21/16"</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;"> </span><span data-v-e1c1f65a="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;">by <a data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/24653767@N06" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Michael Candelori Photography</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;"> is licensed under </span><a class="photo_license" data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/?ref=ccsearch&atype=rich" rel="noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">CC BY 2.0</a></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />The Trump election was unexpected, but not ruled out by the best pollsters. Five thirty eight described the narrow path that would need to be navigated to win the electoral college, and, as the night wore on, every state he needed was won by the Republicans.</p><p>I wasn't happy about the rhetoric, or the track record of Trump the businessman, but I thought that the Republican braintrust would surround him and keep him out of trouble. What worried me was the elements of society that were emboldened. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/east-york-alt-right-racist-posters-1.3850386">Posters</a> were seen in Toronto that set off alarm bells in my mind. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/notley-premier-threats-security-1.4644989">Rachel Notley</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/threats-abuse-move-from-online-to-real-world-mckenna-now-requires-security-1.5274766">Catherine McKenna</a> faced death threats. All it seems to take is economic hardship and a leader who tells you whom to blame.</p><p>And despite a presidency where his approval rating could never reliably breach the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">50% ceiling</a>, an insurrectionist mob eventually marched on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol">US Capitol</a> with the objective of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election. They were fuelled by their thought leaders spewing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election">mistruths</a> that didn't hold up to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-lawsuits-election-results-2020-11">scrutiny</a>. They were fuelled by a conspiracy theory whose mouthpieces, when nothing panned out, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-qanon-idUSKBN29P2VO">told them</a> to basically remember all the friends they'd made along the way.</p><p>It happened because rhetoric has consequences.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKal0j4OZbuPpgmLFk2t1SDnOjjLIhuC14o1Fi5wV-IoMiWNYr2lJLMC7ZQCWbLMtnkTPHBbFAiq4aXEfCJvMTzE4sG611yJZk7oKzGSORJ2KA2AYEXmVoPODo-KKWy9o0hY3Z0e4nCSQ/s1024/15464565446_82819f4d5d_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="819" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKal0j4OZbuPpgmLFk2t1SDnOjjLIhuC14o1Fi5wV-IoMiWNYr2lJLMC7ZQCWbLMtnkTPHBbFAiq4aXEfCJvMTzE4sG611yJZk7oKzGSORJ2KA2AYEXmVoPODo-KKWy9o0hY3Z0e4nCSQ/w320-h400/15464565446_82819f4d5d_b.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/58246681@N03/15464565446" rel="noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">"Doug Ford Getting Grilled After a Debate"</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;"> </span><span data-v-e1c1f65a="" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;">by <a data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/58246681@N03" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Alex Guibord</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start;"> is licensed under </span><a class="photo_license" data-v-e1c1f65a="" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/?ref=ccsearch&atype=rich" rel="noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #e23600; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Source Sans Pro", sans-serif; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">CC BY-ND 2.0</a></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>And let's not forget this guy. During the second and deadlist wave (so far, I guess), of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Ford offered nothing but rhetoric. Concerned about the health of businesses, he allowed local lockdowns to be to solution as case counts continued to rise from October of 2020 into the end of the year. Even as it became clear that people were <a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/some-malls-extremely-busy-as-shoppers-leave-lockdown-zones-1.1534790">leaving locked down areas</a> in order to do their holiday shopping. And finally, after the case count was fully out of control and ICU capacity was threatened, Ford announced that <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/59790/ontario-announces-provincewide-shutdown-to-stop-spread-of-covid-19-and-save-lives">urgent action was needed</a> (on December 21st), and that the province would lock down after Christmas. </p><p>Because when a pandemic is threatening the capacity of your health care system, it's important to give people a 5 day window to get their shopping and holiday gatherings in.</p><p>As cases continued to climb, <i>because of course they did, </i>Ford offered the ferocity of an <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/i-will-be-like-an-800-pound-gorilla-on-their-backs-ontario-premier-warns-as-covid-19-testing-falls-short-1.4948198?cache=nkwcgcjqfzosqu%3FclipId%3D89530">800-lb gorilla</a>, lauded the success of curfews in other jurisdictions while saying he wouldn't enforce one despite everything being "<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-oha-lockdown-1.5845195">on the table</a>".</p><p>I don't envy having those decisions to make, and Ford has stated that he's trying to keep businesses afloat, but people are dead because of the lack of province-wide restrictions. A reluctance to close businesses has led to case counts so high that they'll be forced closed for <a href="https://www.blogto.com/city/2021/01/ontario-government-lockdown-last-longer-expected/">an indefinite period</a>. I'll let that sink in.</p><p>The common thread here: powerful fools are dangerous fools. Our time has become harder than it needs to be because politicians overestimated their ability, underestimated the importance of experts (you know, the people who dedicate their lives to understanding things), and in one case, were elected without putting forward a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-pcs-platform-cost-fiscal-1.4684590">costed platform</a>. </p><p>As a brief aside, let's just remember that it was a platform that included a court challenge to the federal carbon tax. A challenge <i>to oppose the Federal government's authority to levy a tax on its citizens. </i>God, how I miss a time when that was the biggest issue in the news.</p><p>If we truly want to strive for a better future, we need to think critically about what politicians tell us, think critically about the news and the facts we consume, and we desperately need to ensure that our institutions are able to withstand the onslaught of powerful fools. Roman institutions withstood Nero, Caligula, and Commodus, (just to name a few), and staved off the only thing worse than a tyrant: a power vaccuum. We may need our minds and our institutions to weather similar.</p><p style="text-align: center;">* * *</p><p style="text-align: left;">So!</p><p style="text-align: left;">I have long disliked think-pieces. It's the ramblings of any given mind, shrouded in enough nonsense and polysyllabic words to lend an air of credence. Granted, it yields clicks, enough attention for ad revenue, but is ultimately masturbatory from an intellectual standpoint. And I've wanted to write a few intentionally stupid ones for a while now. My own brand of stupid nonsense follows, the 0th edition of 'Think Pieces are Stupid'.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Like many of you, a little under 20 days ago, I came across the video from <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/seashanties/comments/kvdkjz/the_amazing_progression/">this post</a>. It follows the progression from skepticism to full embrace of The Wellerman by The Longest Johns. It has since taken the world by storm.<b> </b><i>But why?</i></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FXfZPbeJqyw" width="320" youtube-src-id="FXfZPbeJqyw"></iframe></div><br /><i><br /></i><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">For an answer, we'll turn to the lyrics, and see that the song is about 2020. An early verse starts:</p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span> </span>She had not been two weeks from shore,</i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span> </span>When down on her a right whale bore...</i></p><p style="text-align: left;">We hadn't been in 2020 that long (well, China was already in it by then), when down on us bore the right whale that is the pandemic. But in response:</p><p style="text-align: left;"> <i>The Captain called all hands and swore,</i><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span> He'd take that whale in tow (Hah!)</span><br /></i></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our leaders (and we, more broadly), swore that we would fight the pandemic, that we would eradicate it. No matter how expertly formed the grooves in our couches would need to be, we committed to it. Not just for fun or sport, but in response to a virus that threatened about 2% of the 70% or so of us that experts estimated would be infected. The verse closes with the singers collectively denoting their enthusiasm for the cause, just as we all did in March.</p><p style="text-align: left;">But the fight continued, and continues.</p><p style="text-align: left;"> <i>For forty days, or even more,</i><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span> The line went slack, then tight once more,</span><br /></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span><span> All boats were lost, there were only four,</span><br /></span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span><span><span> But still that whale did go (Hah!)</span><br /></span></span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;">Forty days in biblical/older language refers to "a long time," and indeed, it's been going for a good long while. The lines went slack in the summer in Canada, when case counts were low, but it's definitely tight as the pandemic rages through the two most populous provinces, and with continued news of riots abroad.</p><p style="text-align: left;"> <i>As far as I've heard, the fight's still on;</i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span> The line's not cut and the whale's not gone,</span><br /></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"> <i>The Wellerman makes his regular call,</i><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span> To encourage the Captain, crew, and all.</span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;">And this is where we find ourselves. COVID-19 is not gone, we're still warned that there might be bouts of civil unrest, the fight is indeed still on. But who is the Wellerman referenced? The answer is in the chorus.</p><p style="text-align: left;"> <i>Soon may the Wellerman come,</i><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span> To bring us sugar, and tea, and rum,</span><br /></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span><span> One day when the tonguin' is done,</span><br /></span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span><span><span> We'll take our leave and go.</span><br /></span></span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;">Supply ships owned by the Weller Brothers (based in New Zealand), would presumably supply whaling ships in the Pacific. And sugar, tea, and rum are certainly welcomed by tired people, let alone sailors. Tonguing was some of the earliest butchering done to a whale once it was brought to shore. But only after the whale has been taken in tow, a promise made earlier in the song.</p><p style="text-align: left;">And that's where we are, and what we're doing. We're waiting for supplies of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOe_y6KKvS3PdIfb9q9pGug">good news</a>, of vaccines, of calm, of normalcy. One day, one day that seems so far away from us right now, on the day of the eradication of COVID-19, we can rest. Perhaps even a day when dangerous fools no longer pervade the news and our screens. That's the day upon which we'll take our leave of this madness.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Until then we welcome all the sugar, tea, and rum we can get.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Until then, The Wellerman shall be our anthem.</p><p style="text-align: left;">-NM</p></div>NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-30830017931176321052019-03-02T22:45:00.000-05:002019-03-02T22:45:09.723-05:00Bank fees are killing your retirement savings.So,<br />
<br />
For a long time now I've been on at least one podcast, and I've had an outlet for all my creative energy. With the hiatus of Future Chat and East Meets West (this one is admittedly self-imposed), I suppose the time is now to get my thoughts written out so I can stop pestering those around me.<br />
<br />
I want to start here by thanking both Planet Money and John Oliver, because listening to <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/03/04/469247400/episode-688-brilliant-vs-boring">Brilliant vs. Boring</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/gvZSpET11ZY">Retirement Plans</a> will probably have saved me a <i>couple hundred thousand dollars</i> by the time I'm ready to retire. Feel free to ditch this post in order to go and check those out, because it's far more enticing than text.<br />
<br />
It was actually this past year that I was forced to start an RRSP, and that's when I dipped my toes into the wild world of retirement savings. I asked about what my friends and co-workers were doing. What I learned was that the threat of fees is not at all common knowledge, and there are equally common misconceptions about the financial advisers that your bank probably offers.<br />
<br />
In order to be as clear as possible, I want to go through a few points with you:<br />
<br />
<b>Your financial adviser is a sales person.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I once lived with a financial adviser. Her university background was in the arts, and she took a course offered through her bank in order to be certified to sell mutual funds to her clients. It was a good job for her. She was friendly, multilingual, and she was able to afford a nice place in Calgary.<br />
<br />
It's often assumed that your financial adviser went to school for business or economics, and is highly trained in these matters. But they're not. A bank has sales targets much like a retail store does, it's just the amount of money changing hands is <i>much</i> higher. And the advice you'll receive is pretty easy to predict, depending on your situation. In fact, many financial advisers will follow along with an automated process (generated by the bank they work for), in order to figure out what product to recommend to you. In the case of some banks, they're looking at foregoing the meat bag adviser class altogether and just offering you the <a href="https://business.financialpost.com/investing/rbc-unveils-low-fee-robo-advisor-service-investing-in-etfs">advice of the algorithm</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>Fees are eating into your savings.</b><br />
<br />
Now, since the bank needs both money for its investors and its workers, all this advice comes with a cost. It's not a cost you'll be charged up front, or you'd notice as a deduction. It's usually expressed as a Management Expense Ratio (MER), somewhere on the fact sheet for the mutual fund or portfolio you've chosen. In the case of Canadian banks, they've probably generated a few index funds, then packaged together those funds in some proportion to create a balanced portfolio.<br />
<br />
Quick aside: What's an index fund? An index tracks something, you've probably heard of the S&P500 for the US market, or the TSX60 for the Canadian stock market. An index fund just owns the stocks which constitute the index, and it's usually a better strategy than trying to beat, or outperform, the market. I won't get into how that works here, you should just listen to Brilliant vs. Boring.<br />
<br />
So those portfolios, in Canadian banks anyway, will probably come with a MER of roughly 2% on the discounted side of things. It doesn't sound like much, but that's 2% <i>of your entire savings</i> every year, whether the value goes up or down. That's right. If the market takes a dive, the bank still collects its 2% on your money. <br />
<br />
There is a way around this. Vanguard, effectively a financial co-op, offers a MER of 0.05% for its Canadian stock market index fund, and a little higher for its bond market index (there are other options in this price range, though they are not a co-operative structure). If you're willing to do a couple hours (max), worth of learning, and perform the trades yourself once a year (and it's best not to touch it more than once or twice a year), you save 1.95% (minus about $10-$25 per trade, which is trivial for a fully funded retirement savings portfolio). And I'll grant, 1.95% doesn't sound like much to have someone else deal with it for you, but let me present the difference that makes. I'm assuming you've simply invested in the Canadian stock market, which returns an average of 7% or so per year, and you've decided to put aside $400 a month:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; font-family: arial,sans,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; table-layout: fixed; width: 0px;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="108"></col><col width="100"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Years passed"}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-width: 2px; border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-width: 2px; border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-top-width: 2px; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Years passed</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Low Fees (DIY)"}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-width: 2px; border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-top-width: 2px; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Low Fees (DIY)</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Bank Fees"}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-width: 2px; border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-top-width: 2px; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Bank Fees</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Difference"}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-width: 2px; border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-width: 2px; border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-top-width: 2px; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">Difference</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">0</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*12-R4C6)*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5106.8625}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$5,106.86</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*12)*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5040}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$5,040.00</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":66.86250000000018}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$66.86</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":40553.676852568504}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$40,553.68</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":37063.216575000006}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$37,063.22</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3490.460277568498}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$3,490.46</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":10}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">10</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":90153.6173224762}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$90,153.62</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":77933.85746161692}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$77,933.86</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":12219.759860859282}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$12,219.76</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":15}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">15</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":159557.71299518432}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$159,557.71</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":130096.30287276475}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$130,096.30</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":29461.410122419577}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$29,461.41</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":20}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">20</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":256673.32342759712}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$256,673.32</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":196670.27020592548}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$196,670.27</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":60003.05322167164}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$60,003.05</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":25}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">25</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":392565.0413189507}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$392,565.04</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":281637.3972557158}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$281,637.40</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":110927.64406323491}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$110,927.64</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":30}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">30</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":582715.3056198166}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$582,715.31</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":390079.3749279582}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$390,079.37</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":192635.93069185846}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$192,635.93</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":35}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">35</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":848788.349472254}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$848,788.35</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":528481.8716320778}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$528,481.87</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":320306.4778401762}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$320,306.48</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":40}" style="border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">40</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1221098.4534060862}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$1,221,098.45</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":705122.4263795128}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$705,122.43</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":515976.0270265734}" style="border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$515,976.03</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]+5" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":45}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">45</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60-R4C6*5+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R3C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1742063.7172458007}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$1,742,063.72</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R1C6*60+R[-1]C[0])*(1+(R5C6/100)-(R2C6/100))^5" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":930565.5095934359}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$930,565.51</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,4,"\"$\"#,##0.00"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":811498.2076523647}" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;">$811,498.21</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
(I don't think the math is spot on here, but you get the idea)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
In my case, I have about 30 some years to retirement, and the difference between self-management and bank fees is in the ballpark of over $200,000. That's a <b>lot</b> of poutine. It's probably living expenses for a few years, or a nice charitable donation once I've kicked the bucket. If somehow you've been saving that much for 45 years, you could almost <i>double</i> what your savings with the bank would have been.<br />
<br />
<b>Don't try to beat the market.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
...Unless you have a nice, stable, juicy pension. Then have at 'er, it could be a lot of fun. But if you're counting on the money being there, one company going bust could take a big chunk of your savings (Nortel, Enron, I'm looking at you), <i>or</i> you're paying too much in trading fees (which might be disguised as management fees). Again, the Planet Money episode "Brilliant vs. Boring" does a great job of explaining this.<br />
<br />
<b>Don't be too conservative too early.</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Granted, you'll want to really load up on bonds when you're getting close to retirement, or if you're saving and think you might need the money soon. Bonds tend to fluctuate much less than stocks. They also tend to go the opposite way of stocks, so they went up during the crisis in 2008, and they have been on the decline during the recent good years of the market. But for the love of God, don't load up on them early in your saving years, because then you're sacrificing a lot of growth. This is <i>particularly</i> true if you're in a fund-of-funds bank portfolio, where the MER represents the total of the return from your bonds. Yes, Shaggy, I'm talking about you, and now the whole world knows that your portfolio is over-exposed in bonds. How embarrassing for you.<br />
<br />
Jack Bogle, for what it's worth, invented the index fund. His adherents recommend owning your age as a percentage share in bonds. That way you'll have a nice reliable amount of money when you're ready to retire, but have good income when you're younger. I'm sure they'd also recommend VCN and VAB, traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange.<br />
<br />
So there you have it. The secret to robust retirement savings. I'll accept payment in hearty handshakes, and visits to your retirement mansions that you purchased with your saved fees.<br />
<br />
You may also feel free to feed me.<br />
<br />
-NM<br />
<br />
<br />NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-60563640713158681922017-08-13T12:26:00.002-04:002017-08-13T12:40:50.870-04:00Paralyzed by Fear. [Creative Writing]He froze.<br />
<br />
He had always heard that time seems to slow in a crisis, in a life-and-death situation, but he hadn't experienced it until now. He felt his pulse quicken, his breath become short, and noticed a shift in the lighting as his pupils dilated.<br />
<br />
He had always loved his home city, the Festival City, Alberta's Capital City, The City of Champions. But now instead of looking orderly and neat, the brutalist architecture seemed to be closing in on him, suffocating him, arresting his ability to move freely.<br />
<br />
A chill fell over him as the car's once comfortable air conditioning met with his cold sweat. At the same time, the world appeared to have frozen. Nobody moved, cars idling, feet pressed hard on the brake pedal lest one move too quickly and become the snowflake which causes the avalanche.<br />
<br />
They say that the difference between a mass of angry people and a riot can come down to one action. Everyone will stand around until they hear glass shatter, until a smoke bomb hits, until a punch is thrown. It is these tense moments which decide whether the morning will see peace, or the wake of an angry mob.<br />
<br />
He strained his eyes, knowing that at some point he had heard of this exact scenario. Some far off, distant memory that warps into vague flashes of recollection. Grade school? No. A stern warning from his parents? No, that couldn't be it. A sermon told once upon a time? Maybe.<br />
<br />
His head cleared as adrenaline coursed through his veins, and he made his decision to act. He edged the car forward. Arcing slowly and deliberately to the left into what appeared to be an opening in the periphery of his vision; he didn't dare to take his eyes off of the horror that lay in front of him.<br />
<br />
Clearing the standoff, he started to speed away, relaxing his now-noticeably white knuckles, and letting out a deep but quivering sigh. In the back of his mind, he was wracked by the feeling he had somehow made a Faustian deal, but decided it would be worth seeing his family at least one more time.<br />
<br />
He didn't know what demonic force had caused the traffic sign to display a green, left-pointing arrow, but he was glad it was over. Mercifully, it was over.<br />
<br />
Driving a lot in Edmonton recently,<br />
NMNMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-50217147793306986162016-01-29T18:01:00.002-05:002016-02-01T14:29:32.856-05:00My preferred voting system for Canada.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLvUdKLo5f8vGLLrVrOne5b2WUEJmT-aVzBBoHrA-FslrgDByejETDFdCqkQQrE5SRtxqs6QgL2bVq4SSJsNPW8SJBAEjRRH3lSqK059ZHWByYL8-2PuiohhKi1wpjMBWrtbvxGNUQpqU/s1600/dxsmp1-e.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLvUdKLo5f8vGLLrVrOne5b2WUEJmT-aVzBBoHrA-FslrgDByejETDFdCqkQQrE5SRtxqs6QgL2bVq4SSJsNPW8SJBAEjRRH3lSqK059ZHWByYL8-2PuiohhKi1wpjMBWrtbvxGNUQpqU/s400/dxsmp1-e.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An Elections Canada sample ballot. <a href="http://www.elections.ca/vot/yth/stu/gui/images/dxsmp1-e.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
I'm going to start by saying that this one's for you, Jeff. It's late, but it's still for you.<br />
<br />
Given that there's been a seismic shift in Canadian politics since the last federal election, I'd like to talk about a choice that the governing Liberals will be faced with in the next year or so, if their campaign promises are to be believed. Justin Trudeau has promised that this will have been the last election under the First Past the Post (FPTP) system, and that a new method will be decided upon after broad consultations.<br />
<br />
Now, I'm not going to try and explain the main contenders for voting systems out there, because not only has CGP Grey already done that, he has done it better than I could hope to do with his <a href="http://www.cgpgrey.com/politics-in-the-animal-kingdom/">Politics in the Animal Kingdom</a> series. While they're all videos worth watching, I'd recommend checking out at the very least the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP), Alternative/Instant Runoff (IR), and Single Transferable Vote (STV), videos for the purposes of this discussion.<br />
<br />
In the last several elections, the FPTP system has delivered rather wild results. In fact, the last two majority governments were decided by roughly 40% of the population. Pundits may endlessly analyse this, looking at voting efficiency numbers (votes cast/seats won), but honestly, it's a consequence of the system. The biggest weaknesses of FPTP are widely seen to be the spoiler effect and strategic voting in general.<br />
<br />
It could be argued that in the Conservative Party's wins of the new millennium, the centre-left parties played spoiler to one another. Were there just one left-leaning party, the majority of voters would have likely backed said hypothetical party, and that would have been the end of it. However, the similar yet different platforms which were supported by the majority of the country split the vote and yielded a majority of seats in the House of Commons to the Tories.<br />
<br />
Now let's look at the election of 2015 specifically. It is widely suspected that the majority win by the Grits was the result of strategic voting. Electors who favoured the NDP (Dippers?) wanted Harper to lose more than they wanted Tom Mulcair to win. In the end, what we saw in the polls was a spectacular shift of support from the NDP to the Grits, and in the end, many voted not for the person they wanted to win, but rather for someone they <i>kind of, sort of</i> liked such that the person they <i>really </i>didn't like wouldn't win.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/QT0I-sdoSXU/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QT0I-sdoSXU?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
That's why I think we need a change in our electoral systems. That said, I have obvious preferences. Proportional Representation (PR) would simply tally the votes, and award seats in the House of Commons accordingly. MMP, similarly, would allow electors to directly send candidates to the House, but would add members ("list members" from lists submitted by the parties), until the seat count more closely resembled the popular vote. It sounds great, but my problem with these methods (and the reason that I didn't support MMP in the Ontario referendum), is that I do not care for the idea of list members. Ultimately, I want each Member of Parliament to be responsible to his or her home electorate. Frankly, having been served by back benchers (read: Parliamentarians who support their Party's motions and do little else), for the majority of my lifetime, I don't think the system needs more MPs who are beholden only to their parties and not their direct electors.<br />
<br />
It is due to my loathing of mindless partisan politicians that I support IR and STV in broad strokes. What I really, desperately want is the ability to rank the options on the ballot rather than simply marking my X (aside: I'd also like the option to rank only those candidates I like and then stop, rather than Australia's model of forcing a ranking of all candidates). <br />
<br />
Now, this model has been widely criticized by opposition MPs saying that this model would prefer centrist parties like the governing Liberals. My obvious rebuttal being to draw attention to the 2011 election, in which the Liberals were so desperately unpopular after a series of scandals and missteps that they were reduced to their lowest seat count in the history of Confederation. My point being that centrist parties won't always remain a favourable option to the majority of Canadians.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/3Y3jE3B8HsE/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Y3jE3B8HsE?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
But, digressions aside, I like the IR model quite a lot. I like the ability to say that I prefer the Greens over the Libertarians, or the Dippers over the Tories, or an Independent over the incumbent. And I also want to retain the ability to send a message to representatives that I feel have not served the citizens my riding well enough. And, if one watches the video featuring the mechanics of it all, IR ensures that the majority of the riding's electors will have directly voted for their representative whilst ensuring they <i>also </i>had the ability to vote true to their conscience.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/l8XOZJkozfI/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l8XOZJkozfI?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
Ultimately, what I like about IR is also what I like about STV. What I dislike about STV is the matter of the larger ridings, and how it is decided who is elected when multiple members of a single party are declared winners. I might be mistaken, but when extra votes are allowed to go to support other candidates, I feel like those votes are not treated as equals (unless the total sum of second choices are considered, in which case it seems... less objectionable). It seems messy, I suppose is my objection. And, ironically, STV seems more deserving of the title "First Past the Post."<br />
<br />
I suppose that this means I would endorse the ranked ballot as my preferred voting system. And, in other, wilder pipe dreams, I think it would be tremendously entertaining to see the Tories acknowledge the rift within their party and split once again into the Reform and Progressive Conservative parties, and observe an IR election with a total of <i>five</i> national political parties. I don't know how well it would serve Canadians in terms of the balance of ideas brought to the Lower Chamber, but <i>man</i> would it be fun to watch.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
P.S. Published without proofreading, because I have to go to work.<br />
<br />
P.P.S Proofread, minor changes made.NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-60135495834890268832015-07-26T23:00:00.000-04:002015-07-26T23:37:14.980-04:00Homelessness, and a Can of Soup. [EBP8]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdYcTdjFzh4LBJHVGTTDlITNqtM1PrH4tshLxm8ESi-B8zsTx_8MU8l7eIq-ajZXpMiL6huR_wKUREgqYWPJrHrI40jQ6lMc4oP5fn8jGE_DyN4l0V893djGlRc0d6SkTHOUM128Gbc6U/s1600/TAG_Andy_Warhol_Soup_Can_01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdYcTdjFzh4LBJHVGTTDlITNqtM1PrH4tshLxm8ESi-B8zsTx_8MU8l7eIq-ajZXpMiL6huR_wKUREgqYWPJrHrI40jQ6lMc4oP5fn8jGE_DyN4l0V893djGlRc0d6SkTHOUM128Gbc6U/s400/TAG_Andy_Warhol_Soup_Can_01.jpg" width="265" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cans of soup produced to celebrate the anniversary of Warhol's painting. <a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/TAG_Andy_Warhol_Soup_Can_01.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<br />
I was walking home this evening, and as one often does when walking the 1 St SW underpass, I passed a homeless man sitting with his back against the concrete walls. Unlike most encounters though, there was no request for money, no witty remark, no blessings bestowed as I passed. This man was looking helplessly at a can of soup. It struck me that this would be an easy fix, save for the fact that nobody actually carries a can opener. Well, perhaps people do, but they're likely not very much fun at parties. Or, recalling a personal anecdote about a man who ate canned food for weeks on end to prove to his girlfriend that refrigerators were luxuries and not necessities, the most fun at parties. It also struck me that there is a certain irony in that canned food would be of the utmost utility to the homeless, but in most cases they would be helpless to open said can. Unless they're the sort of person that is either the most or least fun at parties.<br />
<br />
In any case, I went home. I ate the food I had brought home for myself. And then I remembered the man without a can opener. I grabbed the can opener from the kitchen as well as a disposable spoon. They went into my pocket and I headed back to the man with the can. As it turned out, the tab to open the can had broken off. I did what I could, and despite thinking early on that it might have turned into a fruitless endeavour, the can was opened. Near the end, I handed the man the spoon, saying that it might be of use if I actually succeeded. He responded with a question:<br />
<br />
"Oh man, a spoon too? How are you doing so good?"<br />
<br />
"I've been lucky." I replied without thinking.<br />
<br />
And it's true. I've been extremely lucky. I was born to parents that did, and still do, love and care for me. I've also come to know many people who have helped me, and continue to help me to this day. I've also been spared the burden of mental illness, which so often factors into homelessness. I am a citizen to whom a great many opportunities have been afforded. And were it not for the kind and caring people in my life, I too could be sitting under the rail bridge at 1 St SW, completely stymied by the lack of a pull tab on a single serving can of soup.<br />
<br />
It's due to this matter of luck that I am so excited about things like the <a href="http://calgaryhomeless.com/">Calgary Homeless Foundation</a>, which offers homes to the homeless. As it turns out, people don't generally like being homeless, and it's extremely difficult to keep a job when you have no place to keep your clothes or bathe on a day-to-day basis. If you afford people these opportunities, they often find a job and move to a nicer place in fairly short order, if the literature is any indication.<br />
<br />
Since my finding out about Calgary's program, the city of Medicine Hat has <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-thursday-edition-1.3074402/medicine-hat-becomes-the-first-city-in-canada-to-eliminate-homelessness-1.3074742">announced</a> that they are the first Canadian municipality to end homelessness. This follows data which suggested that housing someone for a year costs roughly $20,000, whereas they cost the system about $100,000 otherwise. Everything I've heard on the matter suggests that the preliminary results are good, and as my fellows over at <a href="http://unwindmedia.com/futurechat">Future Chat</a> agree, it seems only logical to offer programs like this if a) you'll save money in the long run, b) you could reap the benefits of economically active citizens in the future. This ignores the whole humanitarian argument, which is hard to accomplish when people are concerned about budgets.<br />
<br />
In the end, the evening left me thoughtful enough that I thought I would write about it, as much to sort out my own thoughts as to share them. I wonder if such a program could come to my home town of Belleville, a home to a disproportionate number of Christian fundamentalists, and [not-necessarily related] big-C conservative sentiments (fiscal conservatism and small government being popular ideas). I'm specifically thinking of a quotation from a statue in Ottawa that has always stuck with me, from Matthew 25:40 "That which you do to the least of my brothers, you do unto me." I'm also left with how I felt when leaving the man. Despite his gratitude, I only felt terrible for having waited so long to offer such an easy fix.<br />
<br />
-NM<br />
<br />
P.S. I have not blogged in a while. A variety of factors, ennui playing a large factor I feel, have kept me from feeling passionately enough to write. I subscribe to Matthew Inman's idea that one should not create without feeling inspired to do so, because the work will suffer as a result. Hopefully the writing will continue, but even if it doesn't, we'll still have Future Chat.NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-55756729651926041932015-03-06T09:08:00.002-05:002015-03-06T09:08:57.259-05:00Election 2015: Trudeau, the New Guy<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNNpb2Df4HsKKzD5O8-QJHtcIi5pQC1XuoGw0Pb7DvzlgDxbq0aBcemqcLjGyijR9kZmXal6eB1jV_uSTAFv7bpEmY5ucilq3DcdmjidID2Mf32uGQtvf90Yjx2qZEOOtb5QfkRNhdZt0/s1600/INC_2009_Justin_Trudeau.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNNpb2Df4HsKKzD5O8-QJHtcIi5pQC1XuoGw0Pb7DvzlgDxbq0aBcemqcLjGyijR9kZmXal6eB1jV_uSTAFv7bpEmY5ucilq3DcdmjidID2Mf32uGQtvf90Yjx2qZEOOtb5QfkRNhdZt0/s1600/INC_2009_Justin_Trudeau.jpg" height="400" width="295" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Right Honourable Justin Trudeau, who, in a shocking twist for this series, is not looking up and to the right. <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/88/INC_2009_Justin_Trudeau.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
The final installment of the "Election 2015" series will be on Justin Trudeau, because I honestly do not believe that Elizabeth May will be our next Prime Minister. I will not be talking about his father and legendary Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau, because it is irrelevant to this conversation. The man is not his father. Shocking, I know.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>My Summary:</b><br />
<br />
First and foremost, I would like to publicly declare that I was disappointed when Trudeau won the Liberal leadership race. I understand the decision for reasons I will outline later but Marc Garneau:<br />
<br />
1) Had more political experience and is arguably more ready to be the leader of a country, and more importantly<br />
<br />
2) IS AN ACTUAL, REAL-LIFE ASTRONAUT, AND WE COULD HAVE HAD AN <i><b>ASTRONAUT PRIME MINISTER</b></i>! <br />
<br />
Ahem...<br />
<br />
My impressions of Trudeau are largely limited, perhaps by design, and possibly because he really hasn't been on the scene in an official capacity for that long. His reign as head of the Liberal Party of Canada, in its smallest incarnation in the history of the party, has been even shorter. That said, there are a couple things worth noting.<br />
<br />
First off, I started by saying that our impressions may be limited by design. Since the Grits rehauled their image after what I will call the "death spiral" under Ignatieff, Dion, and Martin, the Party hasn't really come out with many policy stances. Although, somewhat hilariously, this rehaul included the stance that the next Liberal leader would seek to have marijuana legalized. This was boldly stated on the website, I remember checking because I couldn't believe a party would actually do such a thing. They have now somewhat backpedaled and declared themselves "Smart on Cannabis." But, as always, I digress. It could be that they are holding back on policy so that the other two [much stronger] parties won't steal policy ideas pre-election and claim them under their own platform. It has happened before, and it would be clever to wait to hear from the opposition before carving one's own path. If the Grits actually have ideas. Which we don't know for sure.<br />
<br />
However, when Justin makes a decision, by God is it as sudden as it is swift and decisive. One day in 2014, seemingly out of the blue, Trudeau announces that those people seeking to run as Liberal nominees must not oppose abortion and "a woman's right to choose." In a similar event, after the Senate expense scandal, he suddenly announced that "there are no Liberal senators," and that they would no longer have any official affiliation with the Grits. It's almost Harperian in that nobody really seemed to be thinking or talking about the issue at hand, and then sweeping, decisive declarations were made. If anything is for certain, he isn't being accused of waffling. Unless he has to go back on the senator affiliations, which he may have to for political leverage in the future. But that's for the future.<br />
<br />
And now, to break up a large block of text, this happened:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/fYlWiZMhaLE/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/fYlWiZMhaLE?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
I've heard ample criticism of Trudeau in my social circles. From speculation that he will make the West subservient to the East (because I live in Alberta now, I hear these things), to speculation that almost everything he has said to this point is blatant pandering to students. I don't agree with these points, frankly. However, I am concerned that he acts impulsively. I have <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2014/11/harassment-on-hill-and-cbc-probably.html">previously argued</a> that, while he made the right decision in the suspension of his MPs which were accused of sexual harassment, he acted much too quickly. There's this thing we have called "presumption of innocence," and unless he had <i>very</i> compelling evidence, his actions should have been much more limited.<br />
<br />
Finally, Trudeau plays the game well. The Tory attack-ad machine successfully destroyed three Grit leaders with taglines such as "The Liberal Party is not corrupt" [pictured: hard-working Canadians shaking their heads in disbelief], "Stephane Dion is not a leader," and Ignatieff's "He didn't come back for you." The machine started up for Trudeau, with an ad saying "He's in way over his head." Trudeau responded by first showing the attack ad, turning to the camera, and saying that this was ridiculous and Canadians deserved better. The attack ad machine, which has been operating successfully for almost a decade was halted, and hasn't shown up since. It'll be interesting to see how this goes.<br />
<br />
<b>My Verdict:</b><br />
<br />
One could argue that Trudeau may yet prove to be either a young gun or loose cannon. I, however, have more pressing issues to address. Trudeau has been seen sporting long curly locks and facial hair. Then he comes on the political scene talking about evidence-based practices. WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT TO STEAL FROM ME, JUSTIN!? DO YOU WANT TO MAKE <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2013/11/universal-public-transit-mut2.html">UNIVERSAL PUBLIC TRANSIT</a> A POLICY, TOO!?<br />
<br />
Justin Trudeau: Avid Reader of Vodka and Equations, Thief.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>My Prediction:</b><br />
<br />
Shortly after Trudeau was named leader of the Grits, I was having breakfast with my cousin in the sunny window of Belleville's Cozy Grill. I said that although we had missed out on an Astronaut Prime Minister (or is that PM Astronaut?), Trudeau was exactly what the Grits needed to crawl out of third party status. They didn't and, I'd argue, don't need an intellectual heavyweight or an experienced diplomat. They need a young, charismatic leader to stir up excitement. He may yet prove to be the heavyweight or the diplomat, but for now he is someone to draw people back to the Grits.<br />
<br />
It is for that reason that I think Trudeau will win a minority. If he doesn't, I imagine Harper will be held to a minority.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
Other posts in this series:<br />
<a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2015/03/election-2015-harper-proroguer.html">Harper, the Proroguer</a><br />
<a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2015/03/election-2015-mulcair-reasonable-one.html">Mulcair, the Reasonable One</a><br />
<br />
P.S. Four hours and 2440 words later. Apparently I had things to say about the leaders!NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-12425252982177019062015-03-04T09:16:00.000-05:002015-03-06T09:11:28.947-05:00Election 2015: Mulcair, the Reasonable One.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB3jY5wSmohYc6KU6G2cDPrAJDeOxigepOmkD8E3tZCj713pqBhwlnu8helLPUnZmlpie7yLM6hVWXsRBCN2iqV0QQfBRWXWyik5DDMGrHkxGS9GBGm37UgnOHd9X_b-NsRyc_1hJeDpA/s1600/Thomas_Mulcair,_Lac_des_Castors,_juin_2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB3jY5wSmohYc6KU6G2cDPrAJDeOxigepOmkD8E3tZCj713pqBhwlnu8helLPUnZmlpie7yLM6hVWXsRBCN2iqV0QQfBRWXWyik5DDMGrHkxGS9GBGm37UgnOHd9X_b-NsRyc_1hJeDpA/s1600/Thomas_Mulcair,_Lac_des_Castors,_juin_2012.jpg" height="400" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Right Honourable Thomas Mulcair, remembering that time he was lambasted for saying Canada had Dutch disease, immediately before a report came out saying Canada had Dutch disease. <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Thomas_Mulcair%2C_Lac_des_Castors%2C_juin_2012.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
I'm continuing on in my "Election 2015" series in [hopefully] one marathon writing session, with articles being released once every day or so. The posts on the opposition opponents will probably be shorter, because they haven't been granted the opportunity to infuriate me nor drive me to angry blogging. Yet. Today's installment: Mulcair, the most reasonable guy in the room. Also, Liberal until 2007. Crazy, eh?<br />
<br />
<b>My Summary:</b><br />
<br />
Mulcair has impressed me since taking the reigns from Smilin' Jack Layton after his untimely passing. He's frequently featured on The House with Evan Solomon, and is often eloquent and measured. That said, I'm most impressed by his work in Parliament, and the stories coming out of the House of Commons. To wit:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/4SpQPYABSLQ/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/4SpQPYABSLQ?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
Honestly, take the time to watch that video, he handles the situation brilliantly. Further, this ultimately ended with a tearful apology from Paul Calandra and probably the death of his political career. Also note that the second time Calandra deflected, he was given a standing ovation from his fellow Tories. You'll also note a serious mis-step just after the four minute mark from Mulcair, he questions the neutrality of the Speaker of the House. As it turns out, the Speaker does not necessarily have the power to compel Members of Parliament to answer questions, but it has led to a discussion of the role of the Speaker, and I would be glad to see more powers granted so that parliamentary discussion can be, y'know, useful.<br />
<br />
With the exception of the last exchange, this is typical Mulcair. After a marathon session of Parliament (I wish I had found an article which covered this, but I didn't), full of petty bickering and little progress, Mulcair ended the evening by essentially calling the lot of them a bunch of children, and adding that he hoped they would have a more productive day to follow. I think his attitude will speak to a lot of Canadians who are fed up with the current pettiness of politics, and I think his is a good voice to have in Parliament.<br />
<br />
Mulcair has also embraced his role as Leader of the Official Opposition. Unlike his predecessors (except perhaps Ignatieff, who took a similar tack), he has been measured, not getting spiteful, but has also been persistent. He makes an effort to hold Harper to account whenever he feels attention is warranted. Though he has no political leverage in the House, his work frequently finds the ears of Canadians and can lead to change from public pressure, because it seems the only way to sway Harper is if his polling numbers are significantly threatened.<br />
<br />
Most recently, I seem to recall Mulcair being concerned at the prospect of mission creep in Canada's role in the air strikes against ISIS targets. I could be wrong, but I [think I] specifically remember them because I thought it was an unreasonable concern. We would be involved in air strikes and potentially training, and there would be a six month review. However, Canadian Forces now find themselves on the front lines of battle. Mulcair is active in demanding an explanation of the governing party, though we are roundly assured that Canada is not in a combat mission, it's just that they're training from the front lines, and they have to defend themselves if fired upon, don't they?<br />
<br />
Something to think about.<br />
<br />
<b>My Verdict: </b><br />
<br />
Mulcair is, quite possibly, the only [or perhaps, most] sane person in the House of Commons.<br />
<b> </b><br />
<br />
<b>My Prediction:</b><br />
<br />
Mulcair should probably win this election, but he won't.<br />
<b> </b><br />
<br />
NM<b></b><br />
<br />
Other posts in this series:<br /><a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2015/03/election-2015-harper-proroguer.html">Harper, the Proroguer</a><br />
<a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2015/03/election-2015-trudeau-new-guy.html">Trudeau, the New Kid</a><br />
<br />NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-64150397685743199662015-03-02T21:37:00.000-05:002015-03-06T09:11:25.634-05:00Election 2015: Harper, the Proroguer.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5yBosJYiJa_jhPnrPqsuTZH0KNB7BHhfXLa___VvbRv8-sj6dFkX2pGtnup-LNty3DW12AhBMLZoVvr7FonmloTkPx7Fo7y8D1OHELoIaChgWjsuf-hYKnNDmQ3A-CiiKi9Aw9GW_SsE/s1600/Stephen_Harper_by_Remy_Steinegger_Infobox.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5yBosJYiJa_jhPnrPqsuTZH0KNB7BHhfXLa___VvbRv8-sj6dFkX2pGtnup-LNty3DW12AhBMLZoVvr7FonmloTkPx7Fo7y8D1OHELoIaChgWjsuf-hYKnNDmQ3A-CiiKi9Aw9GW_SsE/s1600/Stephen_Harper_by_Remy_Steinegger_Infobox.jpg" height="400" width="291" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Prime Minister Harper, remembering the days of high oil prices. <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Stephen_Harper_by_Remy_Steinegger_Infobox.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So,</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After almost four whole years after the Tories took power, we are once again in an election year. I'll admit that I'm pretty excited at this prospect as a fan of evidence-based practices and a proud Canadian that has been <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2014/01/the-national-research-council-of-canada.html">repeatedly</a> <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2013/06/the-last-month-or-so.html">exasperated</a> by the <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2012/05/bev-oda-and-canadas-government.html">elected representatives</a> of my countrymen.</span></span> Particularly <span style="font-size: small;">that second one, under "exasperated." It touches on the most mind-bending of Harper's offenses, though my writing is excessively verbose.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">I thought it would be an interesting exercise to record my thoughts on the candidates going into this election, including what I think of each candidate, and where I think they'll end up after election night. That way I can look back at what my exact thoughts were (as can all of you, my be-monocled, top-hatted readers), and reflect on how truly wrong and misguided I was.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>My Summary:</b> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">So, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OAZvxhkuXQ">Harper the Proroguer</a>. I've been thinking a lot about it this week, and I cannot decide whether he is willfully blind to evidence, an excellent politician, a fool, or all of the above. In all seriousness, I believe he must be doing what he thinks is right, I don't think he's doing anything with deliberate malice, but he just keeps doing such goofy things.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Take for example the census. Canada was a world leader in excellent census data, particularly because it was mandatory. Prison sentences actually awaited those who refused to fill out the long-form census. Harper publicly decried these penalties and removed them in one of his first acts as the leader of a majority government.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">What's my problem with that? Well, I'll say first and foremost that it wasn't an issue. It's almost like his movement to change the lyrics of 'O Canada' to be more gender-inclusive. It just wasn't being discussed. It wasn't on anyone's radar. It's like he saw a peaceful beehive and decided to stick his finger in there to see what would happen. It's like he's the <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2012/03/the-joker-effect-batman-and-game-theory.html">Joker</a> of political action, just an agent of chaotic destruction.</span> Anyway, it didn't matter to him that nobody in the history of the Canadian census had <i>ever</i> gone to prison for not filling out the census, because<i> </i>no reasonable person would ever choose prison over taking ten minutes to half-ass the long-form census. So now we have a voluntary survey. That's great. How does the government now make decisions on how to best deliver public services? Probably based on questionable data. Or purely political motivations, knowing Harper.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj310AVd23cQROiQOmJnTNsCD9kon630JU8bn8PMchyGJlLTjYheNGOUCcQL6Yrlu0JYIt-KylNmwJliEViCZj1EXyc1cI0ntvNTyX4FOjnbjBEEjLPNKNFaUoAStkdPgjI-2-Musl0LOg/s1600/CF-1_flight_test.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj310AVd23cQROiQOmJnTNsCD9kon630JU8bn8PMchyGJlLTjYheNGOUCcQL6Yrlu0JYIt-KylNmwJliEViCZj1EXyc1cI0ntvNTyX4FOjnbjBEEjLPNKNFaUoAStkdPgjI-2-Musl0LOg/s1600/CF-1_flight_test.jpg" height="502" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">After the Tories fought tooth and nail for these things, it turns out they don't even work in the Arctic. But they are, and will always be, Scandalicious. <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fb/CF-1_flight_test.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
However, this could also have been a brilliant calculation. The economic situation hasn't been great since the Great Recession of 2008, and who is least likely to fill out the voluntary survey? According to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_2011_Census#Voluntary_long-form_survey_controversy">Ivan Fellegi</a>, former Chief Statistician of Canada, it's the poor, new immigrants, and aboriginals. Those who, in general, could benefit most from public services, and those who are most likely to deflate Canada's economic picture. This is pure, baseless speculation, but it would be a brilliant political move.<br />
<br />
So that's a thing that happened. Harper also came to power promising more government accountability, appointed a Parliamentary Budget Officer to fulfill said promise, and then dismissed the unfortunate Kevin Page when, y'know, he tried to hold government to account. Which was his job description. And the job was created for that purpose by Harper. Harper wanted to reform the Senate and make it more democratic, and then a bunch of his senate appointees were unceremoniously ousted for their unethical behaviour. He referred to a non-confidence motion to defeat his government as a "parliamentary trick" when that's how he himself came to power (or that's how I remember it anyway).<br />
<br />
He's an interesting character. Bewildering, but certainly entertaining.<br />
<br />
<b>My Verdict:</b><br />
<br />
Petulant politician, perpetually pining for power.<br />
<br />
<b>My Prediction:</b><br />
<br />
... Isn't really much of a prediction. Those who have been paying attention for his tenure are mostly sick of his antics, but most electors either 1) haven't been paying attention, or 2) vote Tory out of principle, and are probably over the age of 55. He's got a solid support base. Further, if Mike Duffy's allegations that Harper ordered him to pay back his expenses because, quote, "it is inexplicable to our base," he certainly does a lot of his maneuvering with his supporters in mind. <b> </b>I think Harper has it in him to win again with two "unproven" rivals. If he wins it'll probably be a minority, and if he loses he will almost certainly limit the winner to minority status.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
Other posts in this series:<br />
<a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2015/03/election-2015-mulcair-reasonable-one.html">Mulcair, the Reasonable One</a><br />
<a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2015/03/election-2015-trudeau-new-guy.html">Trudeau, the New Guy</a><br />
<br />
P.S. In the lead up to this, I watched a bunch of old Rick's Rants. You might enjoy them too, so they're posted below. Also following is a link from the hilarious Scott Feschuk on Stephen Harper from 2013 conversing with his 2005 self.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.macleans.ca/authors/scott-feschuk/its-so-good-to-talk-to-me-again/">http://www.macleans.ca/authors/scott-feschuk/its-so-good-to-talk-to-me-again/</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/lMBMcMf85ow/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/lMBMcMf85ow?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/vKjyLaXWSIU/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/vKjyLaXWSIU?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/DEdzOdqZRBA/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/DEdzOdqZRBA?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/YlwVo9O6zto/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/YlwVo9O6zto?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-26719036707452823372015-01-31T15:00:00.000-05:002015-02-03T08:54:22.509-05:00Pipelines. [EBP7]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzkQMOyHsDmSUifyc2MON3nMYj1K7eYdaNCV3UE-TxsiTm9GmZZnQApJ9wZbDatuS-usSsrdDy-IS4JqEMGMD9xCbEdSwYuRnmeEoG4AOGdAgjbl_sS04dCEN9ykRMOPu43flc5JgnCSM/s1600/2265541510_8b3a30dd83_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzkQMOyHsDmSUifyc2MON3nMYj1K7eYdaNCV3UE-TxsiTm9GmZZnQApJ9wZbDatuS-usSsrdDy-IS4JqEMGMD9xCbEdSwYuRnmeEoG4AOGdAgjbl_sS04dCEN9ykRMOPu43flc5JgnCSM/s1600/2265541510_8b3a30dd83_o.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Alaskan Pipeline. Source <a href="http://www.zleak.com/">Ryan McFarland</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
I tried to fiddle with my blog layout, so hopefully you'll see more photos in their original size. As it turns out, the average computer monitor isn't quite so restricted as it was when Awesome, Inc. designed this template, and it's nice to be able to show pictures in their original size and splendour. <br />
<br />
But yes, to the point. The Keystone XL pipeline has been approved by the United States' Congress and President Obama has vowed to use his veto. I'm also hearing a lot about the <a href="http://www.transcanada.com/energy-east-pipeline.html">Energy East</a> pipeline, which is currently slated to ship Alberta and Saskatchewan oil as far east as Cornwall, Ontario. Specifically, it will deliver crude oil to refineries in the East. Tom Mulcair has actually been a vocal proponent of upgrading our raw natural resources before exporting them, because it means more Canadian jobs and increases the value of our exports. It seems much better than exporting our oil to be refined in other countries, so that we may buy it back at a higher price, anyway.<br />
<br />
But still I digress. Pipelines are all over the news, and there is a lot of resistance. Tonnes of it, even. In fact, there exists a pipeline known as "<a href="http://www.enbridge.com/ECRAI.aspx">Line 9</a>" that runs from Sarnia to Montreal. In 1976, it carried oil eastward, I am assuming in the wake of the OPEC oil crisis. In 1998, the flow was reversed to ship the cheap oil from across the Atlantic inward. And now, again, the flow has been reversed to supply Western crude to the East. The amount of resistance and complaints this faced was astounding given that the pipeline was <i>already in place</i>.<br />
<br />
So pipelines are so unpopular that even those which exist are subject to intense scrutiny for simply reversing flow direction. Pipelines which are to be constructed face even more intense criticism. And I will grant that this is at least partially warranted. Pipelines are subject to failures which can release non-trivial amounts of crude oil into potentially sensitive environmental areas.<br />
<br />
But here's the thing: Canada is addicted to oil. The world is addicted to oil. Since the Industrial Revolution, we have been burning and using fossil fuels, and it has shaped our lives in ways most people don't realise. All your plastics are petroleum products. Polar fleece sweaters are made from petroleum. Drugs and the solvents used to develop them are often based on petroleum products. But the biggest use of oil is for energy, and energy is the biggest industry there is. If liquid fuels are included, it is the biggest industry by several factors. To quote Rick Mercer, that's alotta poutine.<br />
<br />
So we're addicted, and it's big money. Money so big that Canada's dollar is under 80 cents USD, down about twenty cents since the price of oil dropped precipitously. Money so big that the oil <b>will</b> be shipped, regardless the approval of the pipelines people protest. And what happens when pipelines get blocked? Well, <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/07/grains-rails-and-regulations.html">Lac-Mégantic</a> happens because the oil needs to be shipped and, shockingly, CN and CP are more than happy to make money transporting things to port.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR7MKv58JaP15gjM9qY0tdpy-2bBeCoccWEMCSZ3te5da9X2mP7VrqoL9aK8NwPJ_GFPYiNtBWXkFHVIXhndb4buVeX-1KC1TqGj9j0vbua8K5NE7sKt_blypYbWwtT0k2EvIQufo59vw/s1600/Screenshot+from+2015-01-30+20:01:25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR7MKv58JaP15gjM9qY0tdpy-2bBeCoccWEMCSZ3te5da9X2mP7VrqoL9aK8NwPJ_GFPYiNtBWXkFHVIXhndb4buVeX-1KC1TqGj9j0vbua8K5NE7sKt_blypYbWwtT0k2EvIQufo59vw/s1600/Screenshot+from+2015-01-30+20:01:25.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.fraserinstitute.org/uploadedFiles/fraser-ca/Content/research-news/research/publications/intermodal-safety-in-the-transport-of-oil.pdf">Intermodal Safety in the Transport of Oil</a>, from the Fraser Institute.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So it seems pretty obvious that the money at stake ensures the extraction and transport of available oil. Now consider the above figure. Pipelines are at most half as risky as transportation by rail (when adjusted for the amount transported), and these numbers are from before the crop of recent derailments. So if one truly wishes to stop pipelines, one must get humanity off of oil. Stopping pipeline construction won't alleviate climate change, because the oil will get shipped by more dangerous means, only putting more lives and environmental areas at risk.<br />
<br />
I don't think oil is in the far future for humanity, oil being an unsustainable resource, unlike <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/08/energy-policy-proposals-numbers-are.html">nuclear and hydro</a>. But we are addicted. When OPEC cut off the supply of oil to North America, things got really bad really quickly. We need to find alternative sources of transportation fuel (or batteries), but it won't change overnight. So as long as we need oil, we should ship it by pipeline. It's cheaper and safer than the alternatives. Well, except maybe for filling <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thisisthat/alberta-oil-planes-storm-spotter-csis-rebrand-no-swearing-challenge-1.2843546/alberta-energy-company-to-use-airplanes-instead-of-pipeline-to-transport-oil-1.2843547">water bombers</a> with oil.<br />
<br />
NMNMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-68959373750898308242014-12-25T11:37:00.000-05:002014-12-25T11:37:53.809-05:00Torture [EBP6].<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimenNCkUqlPXe4RQqfVjpuxFkCCbR47SsmO4R15FWfRliD8qf-bxAr69kgTRNTghyaI4VhkSHjKWt5L9SKcGSdVycXZ8YHBpE7r2vAKnAaW-nq9j3rS1oB5O-nRnX5Ot2Ehj2rwDIlFwM/s1600/US_Senate_Report_on_CIA_Detention_Interrogation_Program.pdf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimenNCkUqlPXe4RQqfVjpuxFkCCbR47SsmO4R15FWfRliD8qf-bxAr69kgTRNTghyaI4VhkSHjKWt5L9SKcGSdVycXZ8YHBpE7r2vAKnAaW-nq9j3rS1oB5O-nRnX5Ot2Ehj2rwDIlFwM/s1600/US_Senate_Report_on_CIA_Detention_Interrogation_Program.pdf.jpg" height="400" width="307" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This document has come to be known colloquially as the CIA torture report.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
So,</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Merry Christmas! This isn't at all a festive topic, but it's been on my mind lately, and I've stumbled upon some free time because the people with whom I am spending Christmas don't share my 07:00 start time. Half an hour ago I discovered the hidden pickle ornament which shall entitle me to the "Pickle Present," when everyone else is awake, and now I'm bored.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Many nation states have tortured prisoners in an attempt to gain intelligence in the past, and I'm sure many will into the future. Islamic State militants are currently torturing their prisoners using the "waterboarding" technique in an act of vengeance (though I'm sure they would have it framed as reciprocity). After the attacks of September 11, 2001, United States operatives utilised what have come to be known "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques" (EIT) which bear a striking resemblance to what the rest of the civilised world would call "torture." I'm not going to get into the details, because that isn't the point of this post.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNOjwL9Si9mDMDkp3niqzn7cho8C3zzOeKaCptpuPGRit7QwoHj_BCJdJrZvDdfWpoUUHtdwLGdxH6Hhk8XvBOWjBuXijZnRXTiZhPKiV_HDGHBmPlMCLVTXxWmf6QTY5CyQRXcatICeQ/s1600/IMG_20141110_103905.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNOjwL9Si9mDMDkp3niqzn7cho8C3zzOeKaCptpuPGRit7QwoHj_BCJdJrZvDdfWpoUUHtdwLGdxH6Hhk8XvBOWjBuXijZnRXTiZhPKiV_HDGHBmPlMCLVTXxWmf6QTY5CyQRXcatICeQ/s1600/IMG_20141110_103905.jpg" height="640" width="475" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Torture is sort of a heavy topic, so here's a picture of a puppy. This scruffy fellow's name is Sawyer.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In a move that I am going to applaud, the US Senate reviewed and then <i>publicly</i> disclosed the results the use of EIT, and it's not good (you can find a good summary <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_Intelligence_Committee_report_on_CIA_torture#Findings_listed_in_the_report">here</a>). The long and short of it is that it did not work nearly as well as had been hoped or represented by the CIA. Frankly, this doesn't surprise me either. Part of first year psychology classes includes the lesson that torture doesn't provide useful information because, when under that level of duress, people will say anything to make the pain stop. This is more or less what was found by the Senate Committee, though the CIA asserts that a known courier to Osama bin Laden was named after the use of EITs on a detainee.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Torture makes for exciting television or movie storylines, and it seems to appeal to a "common sense" notion that hurting people will force them to give up useful intelligence, but in practice it doesn't really work. Any careful organisation will enforce a "need-to-know" system in which most detainees wouldn't have any useful information anyway. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That question remains, however, how do you acquire intelligence from a prisoner if not through torture? They're not supposed to tell you useful information after all, so what do you? Well, here's a novel, Chistmas-y idea: try being nice to them. The most interesting sources which I have come across on this topic were in psychology lectures (which might be misremembered, it might be in the text), and in the book "The Defence of the Realm," the authorised history of MI5. The only source I could easily Google can be found <a href="http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/being_nice_worked_in_world_war_ii._why_not_now">here</a>, and mirrors what I've read elsewhere. In essence, if you treat a person as hostile, they're less likely to co-operate with you. If you tell them honestly that they are no longer a combatant (because they aren't), and if you express genuine empathy for their situation, they're far more likely to co-operate. As mentioned in the source, Hans Scharff was an interrogator for the Luftwaffe in World War II. He was so successful that some of his US prisoners were tried for treason after the war because he had gotten so much information out of them. That's how successful you can be when you don't act like the evil enemy you might be portrayed as.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1b56SB3Jf1r-GWAlG6kzaNyMlqyjH7ZqpHLVp3wAUWF5se0EwNGcFCKtCmMGtc2sHxI9giIWtrJmunDLUKPtEMXoEppk57FGTSVpx2SA6gG2McpzMLYeBe1hy-bwa5MjBIsr8Uud3h0A/s1600/2014-04-10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1b56SB3Jf1r-GWAlG6kzaNyMlqyjH7ZqpHLVp3wAUWF5se0EwNGcFCKtCmMGtc2sHxI9giIWtrJmunDLUKPtEMXoEppk57FGTSVpx2SA6gG2McpzMLYeBe1hy-bwa5MjBIsr8Uud3h0A/s1600/2014-04-10.jpg" height="640" width="480" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">When I come downstairs in the morning in Belleville (this was taken when I was recovering from hip surgery), Bailey comes to see me and we have a "chat."</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
It's also worth noting that, though the Republican Party does not widely condemn the use of EIT, prominent Republican John McCain does. He specifically states that torturing detainees compromises "...that which most distinguishes us from our enemies. Our belief that all people, even captured enemies, posses basic human rights." He's absolutely correct. Specifically now, when Islamic State militants are being condemned for their inhuman acts, it's difficult to maintain the moral high ground while actively torturing prisoners. So going forward, let's all remember the Christmas spirit, and engage in the evidence-based practice of not torturing people.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
"By the way," you might ask, while polishing your monocle, "why did John McCain come out so strongly against torture when the rest of his party did not?" It probably has to do with the fact that John McCain was tortured in Vietnam.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Suggested reading/watching:</div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/u-s-senate-report-condemns-cia-harsh-interrogations-1.2865440">http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/u-s-senate-report-condemns-cia-harsh-interrogations-1.2865440</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cia-torture-report-8-times-u-s-officials-defended-cia-interrogations-1.2866960">http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/cia-torture-report-8-times-u-s-officials-defended-cia-interrogations-1.2866960</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/being_nice_worked_in_world_war_ii._why_not_now">http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/being_nice_worked_in_world_war_ii._why_not_now</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_Intelligence_Committee_report_on_CIA_torture#Findings_listed_in_the_report">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_Intelligence_Committee_report_on_CIA_torture#Findings_listed_in_the_report</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-84263574262949994142014-12-09T00:24:00.000-05:002014-12-09T00:24:23.856-05:00The ideal wedding ring.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr5VAHVmOOzyaP-jq5Rz8h7e6z_xm2dhyBHsHcr7w8HDHb8HyUcy9Lp1EUNLtW3IZj8fD-Grop11p_AlXEJnQNS30j85KGRtsLu5PF4iiRwTVKct9esKm8Y31NOwpJ7OqU49YqIuqyv6o/s1600/IMG_20131203_154633.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr5VAHVmOOzyaP-jq5Rz8h7e6z_xm2dhyBHsHcr7w8HDHb8HyUcy9Lp1EUNLtW3IZj8fD-Grop11p_AlXEJnQNS30j85KGRtsLu5PF4iiRwTVKct9esKm8Y31NOwpJ7OqU49YqIuqyv6o/s1600/IMG_20131203_154633.jpg" height="400" width="300" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">What a couple hundred dollars' worth of machining and grade 316 stainless steel looks like.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
My mind has been thoroughly wandering lately, and it settled upon an interesting thought experiment a while back: what is the ideal wedding ring? It appears that I have followed CGP Grey's model, and got so excited about my idea that I wanted to talk to everyone about it, ran out of real-life people who would listen to me, and decided to talk to you, my dear, monocled, top-hatted, stylish, and not at all robot audience.<br />
<br />
I'll start by saying that I don't actually judge the choice of wedding rings of others, different types and styles please the eye of the wide variety of people out there. If your ring makes you happy, I'm happy you're happy. That said, ladies, pay attention. If you wish to lock up a man like me (and who wouldn't want that?), you'll need to consider the following.<br />
<br />
The standard wedding ring is one or several diamonds mounted on a gold band, both materials of variable purity. Diamonds specifically have an interesting series of characteristics upon which they are judged, and different impurities will impart different colours to the stone. Gold, also, will have a variety of other elements present, and its purity is expressed in carats (or 'karats'), because what humanity really needs is another useless unit that could easily be expressed as purity by weight or atomic percentages.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi51zUNN2aZw3_tQQuuW15t9T2vAd9V9VL-edemunc6N6RYTedSlOz5LeABTT_W1UoQ8oF-u7qaPt5cc69vQugBoovmnp4SsIgrD6OAdtW8oVy7ztTB0Z66ihPMOyv83oKUTNHcVVRuuwE/s1600/Diamond,_14kG,_wed_eng_anv_RING.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi51zUNN2aZw3_tQQuuW15t9T2vAd9V9VL-edemunc6N6RYTedSlOz5LeABTT_W1UoQ8oF-u7qaPt5cc69vQugBoovmnp4SsIgrD6OAdtW8oVy7ztTB0Z66ihPMOyv83oKUTNHcVVRuuwE/s1600/Diamond,_14kG,_wed_eng_anv_RING.JPG" height="350" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pictured: an affront to basic human decency and logic. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedding_ring#mediaviewer/File:Diamond,_14kG,_wed_eng_anv_RING.JPG">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Diamonds specifically are a source of ire for me and fellow logical, beautiful man Rob. To understand why, one must first appreciate many of the world's diamond mines are run by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Beers">De Beers</a>, a cartel which was close to a monopoly, and maintains generally shady business practices. This includes withholding stockpiles of diamonds and limiting supply to create an artificially high price, flooding the market with diamonds similar to its competitors to drive them out of business, and keeping a limited, approved number of purchasers. Generally, diamonds are not worth nearly as much as we pay for them because the supply is deliberately limited.<br />
<br />
Further, the diamond ring as a wedding/engagement ring was a product of marketing in the early twentieth century. Where wedding or engagement bands would often feature gemstones like rubies (because rubies are red, and red so obviously equals love), it was drilled into the consumer that diamonds were forever, and families were encouraged to purchase them to use as valuable heirlooms (despite the fact that the <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/02/have-you-ever-tried-to-sell-a-diamond/304575/">resale market is horrendous</a>). Young women especially were told to expect a diamond if the chap in question really loved her, and the films of the time ended up featuring many a luxurious diamond.<br />
<br />
So diamonds. They're not worth nearly what we pay for them, and the reason we expect them is entirely due to marketing. And on the note of marketing, specifically that which says diamonds are forever. Diamonds are less energetically stable than graphite (the stuff in your pencil), and over the course of the universe, diamonds will slowly but surely decay into graphite. Not at all the symbolism you want in a wedding band.<br />
<br />
Now, let's tackle gold. Gold is known as a noble metal, it is quite unreactive and as a result can be found in veins underground in its natural state. This is quite unlike the more reactive metals like aluminum (or aluminium, if we're sticking to IUPAC standards) which can be found almost exclusively as a mineral which requires refining to reduce to a metal. Human beings have long prized gold for its shininess, the fact we can find it in its natural state, and its malleability (the pure stuff is very soft, which is why you see Olympic athletes biting their medals). In fact, these all make gold useful for coins, and that's basically why we like gold so much. Its resistance to corrosion and good conductivity make it useful for electronics, and it has some fringe uses in chemical catalysts, but that's about all the uses that gold has for us. In an excellent episode of The Invisible Hand, they discuss the relative merits of <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/theinvisiblehand/episodes/2012/07/04/gold-vs-chickens/">gold and chickens</a> as currency in a post-apocalyptic society. A conclusion of the show was that gold is only valuable because it has been so intrinsically tied to coinage and worth for so long, its value is almost entirely ascribed. Frankly, it might as well be a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania">tulip</a> for all the good it does us.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZmFBZA-RsWOYsfco9dqmx9dBfpK8nqrX0aoQAugoj81VOFwIuKIVwY5GW4e-wbONexo5bj_ivlJWphmz2xES4ALWGK7qHSFwJlh5VrK-AfqKqYiJZIzqZei9vjXPFeB1nsOt1Okb6o8M/s1600/394px.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZmFBZA-RsWOYsfco9dqmx9dBfpK8nqrX0aoQAugoj81VOFwIuKIVwY5GW4e-wbONexo5bj_ivlJWphmz2xES4ALWGK7qHSFwJlh5VrK-AfqKqYiJZIzqZei9vjXPFeB1nsOt1Okb6o8M/s1600/394px.JPG" height="320" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Aqua Regia. <a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%E7%8E%8B%E6%B0%B4.JPG">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
An interesting consequence of gold's nobility is that very few things can dissolve it. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aqua_regia">Aqua regia</a> is one such acidic mixture, hydrochloric acid combined with nitric acid. In fact, there's a neat story in that Wikipedia post about some Nobel Laureates fleeing prior to Nazi invasion. A Hungarian chemist named Hevesy dissolved the gold medallions in aqua regia so that they wouldn't be discovered, and after the war he returned to find the solutions untouched. The gold was recovered, and the medallions re-struck. But I digress. Gold dissolves in only a few things, and aqua regia is one of them.<br />
<br />
This, of course brings me to the ideal wedding ring material: stainless steel. Stainless steel is built on the foundation of steel, iron combined with just enough carbon to make it hard and durable. Stainless steel is quite a hard metal, very tough, very durable. This is combined with various amounts of chromium and molybdenum to protect it from corrosion. Specifically, as steel undergoes corrosive attack, the iron will be eaten away with comparative ease, but the chromium and molybdenum will not. They will remain and gradually build a resistant layer which will protect the integrity of the base material. It's not unlike a marriage, really. It's a bit vulnerable in the beginning, but it gets tougher and more protected the longer it lasts, the more tests it faces.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3viPrfo3HGxPxL3UE9omlf9ZF9ZwH2KcghWr_w4jlIjTHoVnfQNOKURiqQp62lBL9feDuVfuk8oAT7xpdEs6h9lWoCOgyrC2PfhvQghyphenhyphenvKYeifLcotZ3GqUOwwK3liHt9e1BqmvL7G4/s1600/671px-Binding_energy_curve_-_common_isotopes.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ3viPrfo3HGxPxL3UE9omlf9ZF9ZwH2KcghWr_w4jlIjTHoVnfQNOKURiqQp62lBL9feDuVfuk8oAT7xpdEs6h9lWoCOgyrC2PfhvQghyphenhyphenvKYeifLcotZ3GqUOwwK3liHt9e1BqmvL7G4/s1600/671px-Binding_energy_curve_-_common_isotopes.svg.png" height="262" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Axes titles say it all, really. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_binding_energy">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
And, to deal with the idea of "forever." Above is a figure depicting the average binding energy per nucleon (a proton or neutron) vs the number of nucleons in a nucleus. You'll notice that right up at the top there, you have iron. The long and short of this figure is how much energy is holding a nucleus today. The elements at either side of the chart, hydrogen and uranium, are both nuclear fuels and will release <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2013/02/old-macdonald-had-farm-eroei.html">tremendous amounts of energy</a>, particularly when in bomb form. Iron, however, will not. Iron and nickel are two of the most stable elements in the universe. Nickel is only slightly more stable, but apparently is less abundant because of the mechanisms which nuclear reactions follow. Despite being more stable, it's easier for stars to fuse the elements into iron than nickel. Isn't science neat?<br />
<br />
So, let's talk about how long forever will be. The universe will meet one of three ends: it will expand until it falls back upon itself; it will expand to a point where it eventually stops and rests; or it will expand into infinity for all of time. My two cents is that the first scenario (the heat death of the universe), doesn't seem terribly likely given that the universe's expansion is accelerating. The other two scenarios will end with the universe expanding and cooling until it meets an icy end. The only way that iron is converted into a heavier element is if it is found in the heart of a star before a supernova. Explosive star death is the source of all the elements heavier than iron, because energy is required to fuse these more massive elements. As the outer layers of a star collapse upon its core, the tremendous heat will fuse the heaviest elements and the explosion will fling them outwards. So unless your wedding ring finds itself in the heart of a supernova (unlikely), the iron from the steel will last into the most literal form of eternity that we can comprehend.<br />
<br />
So what have we learned? Diamonds are locked in an artificial market, will gradually decay into graphite, and are only strongly desired because of strong marketing. Gold, similarly is only as valuable as it is because we lose our collective minds when we see sparkly things. Even at the end of that episode of the Invisible Hand, they ask the proponent of gold for his thoughts after explaining the actual value of gold, and his answer basically amounted to "Well, if you're not going to use gold as a currency, what else are you going to use?" Stainless steel, in contrast, is more than skin-deep beauty. It is much tougher than soft gold, and it will last the test of time much better than gold. And speaking from experience, the grade 316 stuff will resist even boiling aqua region for all its worth. I've spent hours trying to dissolve small filings of it. That's the kind of symbolism you want in a token of love to one another.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-881956930642468062014-11-21T00:28:00.000-05:002014-11-21T00:37:09.558-05:00Sexual Harassment on the Hill. And the CBC. Probably everywhere, really.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKiJUmPc76K1OGwXv41sNKaUxXWjmbRK-mHQJH7z_uhevOgsCNHLYhOnVBABYhidRx-vTggt99x8TSM4EJwVa8kJPITN_ZfN-54s-f1gMIlLnccyeha1eXhJMHDn_elZGRjV_aObi0XvI/s1600/Jian_Ghomeshi_in_Vancouver_2009.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKiJUmPc76K1OGwXv41sNKaUxXWjmbRK-mHQJH7z_uhevOgsCNHLYhOnVBABYhidRx-vTggt99x8TSM4EJwVa8kJPITN_ZfN-54s-f1gMIlLnccyeha1eXhJMHDn_elZGRjV_aObi0XvI/s1600/Jian_Ghomeshi_in_Vancouver_2009.jpg" height="400" width="363" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jian Ghomeshi at the Vancouver taping of Q. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jian_Ghomeshi#mediaviewer/File:Jian_Ghomeshi_in_Vancouver_2009.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Boy have things hit the fan lately. Suddenly, and seemingly without warning on the 26th of October, Jian Ghomeshi leaves a rather lengthy <a href="https://www.facebook.com/jianghomeshi/posts/10152357063881750">post</a> on his Facebook wall. He claimed that a jilted ex-girlfriend was engaged in a smear campaign against him and that the CBC was groundlessly dismissing him after his faithful service on Q. All because he has a taste for rough sex.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As it turns out, he voluntarily showed a photo to his superiors that proved he had caused physical harm to a woman, to the point that it had left marks. The rumour mill is working overtime on this matter, and I would like to wait for the court proceedings (he is suing CBC for wrongful dismissal), until making my mind up. That said, it appears that many women were harassed by Ghomeshi on the set of Q. And, as an interesting legal note, under Canadian law it is impossible to consent to anything that will leave a mark, making anything he has done which left a mark a felony.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Not long after, a press conference was called on Parliament Hill. Justin Trudeau, leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, announced that he was suspending Scott Andrews and Massimo Pacetti for "personal misconduct" pending an investigation. It soon came to light, though the source remains unknown, that they had been suspended for the sexual harassment of two female NDP Members of Parliament.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Criticism was swift and plentiful. My first reaction, before I knew the allegations, was that Trudeau had jumped the gun. The presumption of innocence is a cornerstone is, in fact, a thing that the Canadian judiciary is kind of big on. Suspending the members before an investigation seemed premature at best.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It has since been revealed that the two MPs in question approached Trudeau with their allegations, which were supported by fellow Grit Craig Scott. Trudeau approached NDP leader Tom Mulcair and discussed the situation. They agreed that suspension would be the best course of action. However, to protect the anonymity of the NDP MPs, the nature of the allegations would go unsaid.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As I previously said, and especially after the nature of the allegations were leaked, criticism was swift and plentiful. However, it was not the kind I expected. There has been a lot of criticism of the decision of Trudeau to "go public." Megan Leslie and Nycole Turmel, NDP deputy leader and party whip respectively, reported that the publicity will re-victimise the women in question. Leslie reports that Mulcair was made aware of the situation and asked the women how they wanted to proceed and respected their right to privacy. Turmel echoed that women were not given their privacy. However, one of the MPs approached Trudeau, and the rest of the story was set in motion. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Trudeau reports that once someone approached him with this information that he felt a responsibility to act, and frankly I agree with him. I'll briefly pause here and say it's easy for me, a male, to judge the situation from the outside and decide what's right and wrong. I won't pretend to know what it's like. Leslie suggested that possible alternative solutions would include things like ensuring that the female MPs in question would not have to work on committee with Andrews and Pacetti, or give them areas in which Andrews and Pacetti are not allowed. This sounds to me like sweeping it under the rug. Ignoring the problem in hopes that it will go away. This is the sort of action that leads to the perpetuation of an alleged "old boys' club." It is only by firm, decisive action that you challenge the culture of a place, and it is only by challenging a toxic culture that it might be changed.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0P1uPPl2ak5sqPx2P4ybk0dCgGyxLTclQ8IDEFfzNOZakGyPmhAv8xKkA2QZ7ZkXOxiVwjoi7jnEfoFxn3DrmxgslZ2dAPbvrrhw21XeesSNsVl3WUcc8pFszlvsrtqjBxaUNvc0juhk/s1600/Bxbg4ScIAAElafN.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0P1uPPl2ak5sqPx2P4ybk0dCgGyxLTclQ8IDEFfzNOZakGyPmhAv8xKkA2QZ7ZkXOxiVwjoi7jnEfoFxn3DrmxgslZ2dAPbvrrhw21XeesSNsVl3WUcc8pFszlvsrtqjBxaUNvc0juhk/s1600/Bxbg4ScIAAElafN.jpg" height="265" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Trudeau at wedding photo shoot. <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamScotti/status/510842867779391488/photo/1">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
At the very least, as Leslie pointed out on <i>The House</i> (excellent program, highly recommend), these events have prompted a national conversation on things like rape culture and consent. It all seems obvious to me, but apparently we live in a society with a lot of idiots that don't understand how consent works, or that "no" does, in fact, mean "no." For me, in brings to mind the ridiculous rant of Sun Media's Ezra Levant, in which he railed against Trudeau because of the photo above. I'm not linking to the video because I don't think it deserves the web traffic, which is ultimately supporting him and his network financially. Levant specifically asked how the new bride's father must feel, or how her husband would feel after this photo, and went as far as to suggest that Trudeau felt he was entitled to the <i>droit du seigneur</i>, which [allegedly] gave lords the right to have sexual relations and/or take the virginity of subordinate women. Two things on that note: despite the fame of "prima nocta" in Braveheart, there is no evidence to suggest that such a law was ever on the books, let alone exercised. Second, Levant <i>did </i>stipulate that he doesn't think Trudeau actually had sex with the bride, because that makes it better.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
However, Levant never once mentioned the feelings of the bride. He didn't seem to give a second thought to the idea that she is indeed a person, from whom consent was obtained before the photograph was taken. He didn't even think that maybe all parties had harmless fun. Probably because he was too busy with partisan hackery to think of the bride as a person, and I think that might speak to the larger issue in a distinct subset of our society.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'll close here by pondering another of Leslie's points from her interview on <i>The House.</i> She mentioned that she has a colleague whose hair is constantly being touched, and that she never saw people going around touching the hair of her male peers. My hair is long and curly, and I am often asked for permission to touch it. I always grant it, to keep the glory of these luscious locks to myself would be profoundly unfair. Perhaps in some cases, people like touching long hair and that's the end of it. Perhaps we're getting closer to living in a country where we don't have to fear sexual harassment or even assault in the workplace. Unfortunately though, the events of the past month would indicate we still have a way to go.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-27053578063295195112014-11-06T16:45:00.000-05:002014-11-06T23:26:06.439-05:00Income Splitting<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTzbFmQOxTSmLfIbaREB1zde-NIE1nJsFi4LJEbNNVsllCPP1Gp7PHA2BniZR11gZIaG3ld6GRKmtU1iKNowgYV45WjnZQ1Nh05bv4sMVPcd23hXMJZ8uoybcqoozRaeUwgBSjZZzz61I/s1600/income-splitting-chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTzbFmQOxTSmLfIbaREB1zde-NIE1nJsFi4LJEbNNVsllCPP1Gp7PHA2BniZR11gZIaG3ld6GRKmtU1iKNowgYV45WjnZQ1Nh05bv4sMVPcd23hXMJZ8uoybcqoozRaeUwgBSjZZzz61I/s1600/income-splitting-chart.jpg" height="292" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Economist Kevin Milligan's take on income splitting. <a href="http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/jim-flaherty-wants-more-analysis-of-income-splitting/">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
Income splitting has been in the news lately, as happens with a lot of things I blog about. The last time the Harper Conservatives were elected, a promise was made that as soon as the budged had been balanced, income splitting would be introduced for tax relief purposes. For a campaign promise made almost four years ago, this is certainly stirring up a lot of controversy.<br />
<br />
So for those of you wondering, income splitting has to do with taxes and tax brackets. The more money you make, the higher a percentage of your income the government collects in taxes. Now, in families with two working parents making different amounts of money, up to $50,000 was promised to be allowed to be "shared," or "given" to the lower-earning partner to lower the tax burden on the higher-taxed partner.<br />
<br />
In response to this promise, the graph at the top of the page was created. Kevin Milligan, an economist I follow on twitter, proceeded to work out the tax savings based on primary earner v. secondary earner income. As you'll no doubt notice, it pays off <i>very</i> well for those with one very high earner and one low earner (though the benefit is capped at $2000, but my understanding is that the details weren't widely known when Milligan first released the graphic). That's the problem that a lot of economists and policy makers have with this plan.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgafpbusnyKRnXDrxpN7NJGmO0kcXYcSZ3LJCYbmQYk461JryEjQpRHaJ7FihAcAshF68HHZVQioZxNF8L_lJud3Xkb1ZEogW9ISVFYe_hcrC89HdIShA_y9y-9aEbnQg3XR-hdRXvgjaI/s1600/Flaherty+doubts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgafpbusnyKRnXDrxpN7NJGmO0kcXYcSZ3LJCYbmQYk461JryEjQpRHaJ7FihAcAshF68HHZVQioZxNF8L_lJud3Xkb1ZEogW9ISVFYe_hcrC89HdIShA_y9y-9aEbnQg3XR-hdRXvgjaI/s1600/Flaherty+doubts.png" height="332" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">His comments were measured and diplomatic, but set off a huge debate. <a href="http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/flaherty-casts-doubt-on-income-tax-splitting-for-families-1.1682521">Source - CTV News</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
As dutifully as he towed the Tory flag, Jim Flaherty himself mere months before he died started to publicly criticise this plan. This is likely due to the fact that less a politician and more a public servant, in my opinion. The source attached to that interview references a study out of the CD Howe institute which found that roughly 85% of Canadians would see no benefit whatsoever. In fact, though I cannot remember quite who said it (though it sounds like something @MikePMoffat would post), an economist's tweet shortly after the scheme was announced went something along the lines of "It seems like the only people benefiting from income splitting will be university professors. I'm hearing a lot of 'Oh yeah, it helps almost nobody but I'm going to save a BUNCH of money on my taxes!'"<br />
<br />
Now, this income-splitting scheme only benefits 15% of Canadians, but that could be relatively harmless if we're hoping to lower the tax burden on the stereotypical nuclear family. However, the reason that this plan ruffles so many feathers is that the price tag is pegged at about $2.5 billion. Billion with a B. To quote Rick Mercer, that's a lotta poutine. And given that the Canadian federal government's expenditures in 2011-12 were roughly <a href="http://www.fin.gc.ca/tax-impot/2012/html-eng.asp">$217 billion</a>, this would represent over 1% of the budget. This also represents almost the <a href="http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/11/04/justin_trudeau_income_splitting_not_a_wise_investment_for_canadians.html">entirety</a> of the projected budget surplus, and it's a lot to transfer to already wealthier families.<br />
<br />
Finally, the first cheque is slated to hit Canadian families next July, just before the next election. This has been pointed out by almost all the analysts I've listened to, and it certainly seems politically convenient to say the least.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
Edit: The benefit is capped at $2000, thanks, Mike!NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-70217509595292956302014-10-26T11:58:00.000-04:002014-11-04T11:34:54.996-05:00The Beer Store needs to die.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXewc0iLePGwrLvqYLD4QKC6GnnndY84qazdAbr_ssXUNCuKuThsUkyJ0RgbmyH9gVWuSKcqHnc9KEe8eMhSiTj0_Jc2Tm-XnQnZJ-fYowhnmKDw7mj23z2t5vM5yTFZ5s68dYYvSFi2s/s1600/208271568_c5c6ebe6bf_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXewc0iLePGwrLvqYLD4QKC6GnnndY84qazdAbr_ssXUNCuKuThsUkyJ0RgbmyH9gVWuSKcqHnc9KEe8eMhSiTj0_Jc2Tm-XnQnZJ-fYowhnmKDw7mj23z2t5vM5yTFZ5s68dYYvSFi2s/s1600/208271568_c5c6ebe6bf_o.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The only thing it's good for is hilarious photo-ops. <a href="https://flic.kr/p/jprT7">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
Most frequenters of my blog, [those attractive, be-monocled, top-hat wearing ladies and gentlemen] will probably realise that I like beer. No doubt some of you know that I have been known to brew my own, seek out new and exciting brews, and sometimes indulge a little too enthusiastically. It would then logically follow that, as with almost everything else in the world, I think about beer more than many would deem necessary or even reasonable. It is due to this combination of borderline obsessive behaviour and my leisure reading that I have come to the conclusion that The Beer Store needs to die, and I hope you will too!<br />
<br />
"Now why," you say, "would you want The Beer Store to end?" Well, you attractive and intelligent reader, let me tell you how the Beer Store came to be. It was the most magical time in the 1920s, Prohibition had been repealed! But, in keeping with the Puritan-esque traditions, many were cursed with the fear that someone, somewhere, might enjoy themselves. In fairness, many fathers were drinking away their paycheques at the local bar and/or beating members of their families, but it seems likely this was due to larger societal/social/psychological issues moreso than the fact that beer was available to people. So, to placate those upset that beer was once again to be sold, in 1927 Ontario decided to found Brewer's Retail, a consortium of Ontario beer brewers that would sell their wares in a heavily controlled manner, similar to the Liquor Control Board of Ontario. Please note that Brewer's Retail is <u>not</u> a government-owned institution like the LCBO, but is owned by the brewers themselves.<br />
<br />
Now, this made sense at the time. The citizens demanded controls over the sale of beer, and Ontario brewers opened a retail system which would facilitate controlled sales. However, about 90 years has elapsed and the situation has changed ever so slightly. Whereas The Beer Store was owned by Ontarians to serve Ontarians, the ownership group has shifted via acquisitions to be 49% ownership each to Labatt's and Molson, and 2% ownership by Sleeman's. Still doesn't seem that bad, right? I mean, they're all Canadian brewers, right? Wrong. Labatt's is now owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev, Molson is the international Molson-Coors, and Sleeman's is owned by Sapporo. So suddenly the ownership is spread over the entire globe and the profits from Brewer's Retail is not flowing back into Ontarian coffers unless you're buying beer <i>directly</i> from a local brewery.<br />
<br />
Not surprisingly, politicians and writers alike have noticed this profound tomfoolery and called for an end to Brewer's Retail. Again, unsurprisingly, The Beer Store has released Ontario Beer Facts, which makes the following [mostly ludicrous] assertions:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVEb1f1ES0RNTuwfAiqjPzfGmOmKhwy3o9YE4wWQe6NniDLKFwjcvVKkO9LDyBvfGij4_A5tUlTT3Vf2MMW1hzhcQpgg9ymcfvKUJJ8dC9ClK2jU82EYLLRaIeZ-db5gxN9xzSoEOY178/s1600/Beerfacts.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVEb1f1ES0RNTuwfAiqjPzfGmOmKhwy3o9YE4wWQe6NniDLKFwjcvVKkO9LDyBvfGij4_A5tUlTT3Vf2MMW1hzhcQpgg9ymcfvKUJJ8dC9ClK2jU82EYLLRaIeZ-db5gxN9xzSoEOY178/s1600/Beerfacts.JPG" height="277" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pictured: An international conglomerate with a sweetheart deal soils its trousers.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
On the first point: The Beer Store keeps consumer prices low? Really? Is that why Ontarians flock across the border to Québec to buy beer? Even Wikipedia has an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Beer_Store">entry</a> which points out that pre-tax costs are lower in La Belle Province. And don't tell me that it's due to lower consumer demand, because a combination of anecdote and observation that Canadian francophones are no strangers to inebriation. I can't see why the second point is valid either, private industry (particularly specialty stores), is perfectly capable of offering niche products to the masses. And, with increased sales and lower prices, the tax revenue should go up for the province, as has been demonstrated by every other province that has privatised beer sales. And increased sales to minors? I'm not sure on that point, but I've seen plenty of convenience stores that check IDs quite rigorously for tobacco sales for fear of losing their license. I have no reason to believe this would be any different.<br />
<br />
The only thing good about The Beer Store is the recycling system, as they capture upwards of 90% of recyclable materials. That said, I think Ontario should introduce a system like Alberta's <a href="http://www.albertadepot.ca/">Bottle Depot</a> which encourages recycling of <i>everything</i>, not just beer or liquor bottles.<br />
<br />
And, as a brief aside, I will tell you that some great resources to learn about beer are the Stuff You Should Know <a href="http://www.stuffyoushouldknow.com/podcasts/how-beer-works/">podcast</a> on the subject, and a thoroughly enjoyable Future Chat <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cywwdagNZA">webcast</a> where the cousins Attrell and I talked about beer. And, as I'm sure I mentioned there (or perhaps in a previous <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2013/11/my-utopia-mut1.html">My Utopia</a> post), I find it fascinating that beer is roughly as old as agriculture, and thus civilisation itself. Therefore, I feel that beer should be the recipient of the ultimate grandfather clause in our society. Beer used to be <i>the </i>source of clean drinking water, and some of our oldest texts contain instructions for brewing beer. Beer has been so tightly bound with Western society that it should be nigh on a human right, and government intervention should be minimal. Save of course for consumer regulations like the Bavarian Purity Laws of 1516, because <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/07/grains-rails-and-regulations.html">regulations</a> are a good thing.<br />
<br />
In recent days, news has come out that rather than abolish the whole thing, the Wynne government might just increase taxation of Brewer's Retail so that their <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/beer-store-profits-700m-yearly-from-near-monopoly-study-finds-1.1382689">$700 million</a> in annual profits might be reduced ever so slightly. Frankly, I'm joining with the other voices which call for an end to this non-governmental monopoly. Free the market and allow Ontarians to be awash in cheap, delicious beer. Tax revenue will increase, Ontario breweries should see increased business and the world will be a better place. Please enjoy responsibly.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
Edit (2014-11-04): Since the comment in question appears to have been deleted (or not shared publicly) after I received a notification e-mail, I'll leave them anonymous. However, they did raise a concern with my use of the $700 million figure, and it is now cited. The study in question found the average price difference for a 24 pack of Molson Canadian to be $9.50 and extrapolated this towards the sum in question, which I grant seems like terrible methodology. Another study discussed <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ontarios-beer-store-owners-hit-back-with-own-study-on-profit-comparisons/article15490291/">here</a> says that the price gap is much lower when taxes are considered (about $3.34 as opposed to $9.50 with taxes considered, though that still seems a tidy profit). However, the first study was sponsored by the Ontario Convenience Store Association (which would like very much to sell said beer), and the second study was funded by the multinationals that own Brewer's Retail.NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-80064741439349325032014-09-23T10:28:00.000-04:002014-09-23T10:28:58.856-04:00A Bigger, Better Canada Appendix I: Details and Maps [MUt3.1]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2MRG4WnHjGGuExREgDhrDTQPJytc2NMe8l0tYdvq-KBWPQkv7LTggdSghWbV61cccIkDQf2-lAtLEA0u5dsNNSqUXoWQbSXhua8ZNaMFyD6F1MafeazIKLJjEPTl6eFHTa7W_yyjUetQ/s1600/Development+corridor.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2MRG4WnHjGGuExREgDhrDTQPJytc2NMe8l0tYdvq-KBWPQkv7LTggdSghWbV61cccIkDQf2-lAtLEA0u5dsNNSqUXoWQbSXhua8ZNaMFyD6F1MafeazIKLJjEPTl6eFHTa7W_yyjUetQ/s1600/Development+corridor.JPG" height="281" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Proposed larger settlements (green circles) and infrastructure extensions (black lines) in the larger Development Corridor.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
When I was in secondary school, I looked around at the global economic powerhouses and noticed a trend. The ones I identified were the United States, the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and China. I noticed that they were big countries, and had something that Canada did not: population density. I hypothesized in my young mind that certainly Europe could become a larger global player if they formed some sort of economic union, and felt vindicated when I later discovered that the European Union was indeed a thing, though it had been conceived long before I had any such idea. So I thought to myself that certainly Canada could become a larger economic power if her more northern climes were developed. How? My thought process was that, if a temporary tax-free zone were established, surely private industry would step in and establish the necessities. It was awfully short on details, but in fairness I think I was 16 when I had this idea.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Naturally, when I found out about the concept of the Mid-Canada Corridor, I was quite excited despite having had the idea several decades too late. This is the reason I was so disappointed after writing my <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/09/a-bigger-better-canada.html">last post</a>. There was so much more detail that I wanted to share, but I couldn't decide on how to present the information to you fine be-monocled, top hat wearing readers and still maintain some semblance of flow. I had, in my opinion, given a hand-waving argument about available resources and given no specific detail on how it would be accomplished (not unlike my 16 year old self's argument). Luckily, the authors of "Mid-Canada Development Corridor ... a concept" had given this thought and drawn many a pretty map. Here, I shall share with you some maps and thoughts I didn't want to include in the last post. It may look like a long post, but at this point in its composition, I assume it will be graphic-heavy and very a very readable length.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9PXTW6n_uoKs8aQWuRdG1zOMbSp5mWLDHHP-eHKomvTxm6oK5x_uQ_UXTckJT7TpTYvNchkTaL8RKWxLQfQqT-PAfK-KxVBNTc_hHGVPEGnsZB96j_KQJWs2tdCi_7-vKJsIJFwUEzms/s1600/fuel+bearing+rocks.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9PXTW6n_uoKs8aQWuRdG1zOMbSp5mWLDHHP-eHKomvTxm6oK5x_uQ_UXTckJT7TpTYvNchkTaL8RKWxLQfQqT-PAfK-KxVBNTc_hHGVPEGnsZB96j_KQJWs2tdCi_7-vKJsIJFwUEzms/s1600/fuel+bearing+rocks.JPG" height="295" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKHZS1Vu6ErhMC_DtQgHPmPfULHzdH0cmI64rhDUCUjECcbArXdshvN6g1bIzCKLTd0zuQsFfSgGm3QRCCb-Gg6IWdTxSCOnFRz9B1CIMATTrLUra9Mn_MiHp7MBs1khMcF8GdwttLAm4/s1600/mineral+bearing+rocks.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKHZS1Vu6ErhMC_DtQgHPmPfULHzdH0cmI64rhDUCUjECcbArXdshvN6g1bIzCKLTd0zuQsFfSgGm3QRCCb-Gg6IWdTxSCOnFRz9B1CIMATTrLUra9Mn_MiHp7MBs1khMcF8GdwttLAm4/s1600/mineral+bearing+rocks.JPG" height="295" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The two maps above are the economic impetus for the development of the corridor outlined at the top of this post. You will notice that the mineral- and fuel-bearing rocks are quite complimentary. I have heard how resource rich Canada is, but I had no idea that this was the extent of it. Each of those minerals and fuels are economically important in their own way, and the exploitation of each would certainly bring wealth and prosperity to the region as well as the entirety of Canada. These two maps I view as the reason to establish the Corridor, or at least the economic reason. Below, I feel the method of development may be established.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjohZqQls1Tdx960kTjxeBI9edHuXLM4epnvyqz_Bs7_FvVvd4DpOmVWGBldvA7Vg5gs6d4P8Nw1ddIKYX2IIaDjwJ4atb9b4J2KgJf2D9l57Q8ozUQ_AGsXew7Ae1nTDtk9Ux-liJzXe8/s1600/existing+air.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjohZqQls1Tdx960kTjxeBI9edHuXLM4epnvyqz_Bs7_FvVvd4DpOmVWGBldvA7Vg5gs6d4P8Nw1ddIKYX2IIaDjwJ4atb9b4J2KgJf2D9l57Q8ozUQ_AGsXew7Ae1nTDtk9Ux-liJzXe8/s1600/existing+air.JPG" height="285" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizGl11zF0L-tTYoCsvc0hjrMJlO7lS8kSfdfIRL33nvuUcQipLCCDJ1h-wxlNYtgppBbVi9ajDgudwpiS3Q7qSgADhnKRJiUL0kRRnTBvO5qXDNAaYZbnpOr-vINWxweeRNn25VGasIKA/s1600/existing+rail.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizGl11zF0L-tTYoCsvc0hjrMJlO7lS8kSfdfIRL33nvuUcQipLCCDJ1h-wxlNYtgppBbVi9ajDgudwpiS3Q7qSgADhnKRJiUL0kRRnTBvO5qXDNAaYZbnpOr-vINWxweeRNn25VGasIKA/s1600/existing+rail.JPG" height="278" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHuzbKDPo9pAWSVxGMhGec0WMbJObZK6rORJ4izeEvaq5Yvq35osKFJ3tJJwIefHLgAOK9PCZu6yAzPxVylz_WNT4XvRECn2n1_2yAUBMbHVXRKLWNvoITQw1J6DkJKUZ4t9x6YjHal3c/s1600/existing+roads.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHuzbKDPo9pAWSVxGMhGec0WMbJObZK6rORJ4izeEvaq5Yvq35osKFJ3tJJwIefHLgAOK9PCZu6yAzPxVylz_WNT4XvRECn2n1_2yAUBMbHVXRKLWNvoITQw1J6DkJKUZ4t9x6YjHal3c/s1600/existing+roads.JPG" height="280" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The road coverage as of 1967 certainly leaves something to be desired, but the rail networks seem to offer reasonable coverage of the Corridor, albeit mostly with single track. Air transportation has excellent coverage of the Corridor and would be an ideal way to ferry people quickly. With this ability to move people via air and freight by rail (and as I've previously stated, <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/07/grains-rails-and-regulations.html">rail is great for freight</a>), it seems reasonable to assume that settlement could be established easily enough. It is also interesting to note that the Lakehead-produced report suggested use of cargo hovercraft to deal with over-land transport of lighter goods where there are no roads or railways, which is wonderful in all sorts of ways.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsCoejZHsoMNllE7Cm2RownseVThUIk4wvc8an2IrJB5yv29OWV6VF27z9LhnTeUS-fYK8jzUzUMkp8SkE-X4g_L8V8NNGqtiQK3oOV6g-IU2wmpw52ZiUem2UtzYpl1KQ0cmfwi7zcXc/s1600/Cargo+hovercraft.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsCoejZHsoMNllE7Cm2RownseVThUIk4wvc8an2IrJB5yv29OWV6VF27z9LhnTeUS-fYK8jzUzUMkp8SkE-X4g_L8V8NNGqtiQK3oOV6g-IU2wmpw52ZiUem2UtzYpl1KQ0cmfwi7zcXc/s1600/Cargo+hovercraft.JPG" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Easily one of my favourite written sections from the book.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
That said, I feel that the aluminum airship (established with a large <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2012/10/r-other-better-stimulus-ebp2.html">R&D</a> contribution from the US government) could play a pivotal role in the development of the Corridor. Recent articles from <a href="http://gizmodo.com/the-aluminum-airship-of-the-future-has-finally-flown-1301320903">Gizmodo</a> and the crew at <a href="http://www.stuffyoushouldknow.com/podcasts/how-blimps-work/">Stuff You Should Know</a> have touched on airships. The article from Gizmodo discusses the development of an aluminum-based rigid airship which requires no runways and is capable of carrying 66 tons. The SYSK podcast linked above discusses the ludicrous fuel efficiency of airships, capable of crossing an appreciable fraction of the Earth's circumference with the same fuel it takes for a fixed wing aircraft to simply reach cruising altitude. And, while we're here, welcome to Vodka & Equations! It's the blog that scoffs at cargo hovercrafts while heaping praise upon modern-day dirigibles.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-hUSfYO-iJ7baTmzA45Nb9j_aAqpEPC5KhjDw2xDttnupfsm4eRbXYK3drNmR1BUY0tpsMReQ0Qt18dzxok2bsfr8ogXJNLfxIxi6DPgzZlalVJNUbF7caT9FbKHysoxD8kf6NbLEFAg/s1600/undeveloped+hydro.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-hUSfYO-iJ7baTmzA45Nb9j_aAqpEPC5KhjDw2xDttnupfsm4eRbXYK3drNmR1BUY0tpsMReQ0Qt18dzxok2bsfr8ogXJNLfxIxi6DPgzZlalVJNUbF7caT9FbKHysoxD8kf6NbLEFAg/s1600/undeveloped+hydro.JPG" height="288" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3X7YyCMtwfNiP2wStSnMk0k2wgM9asv5QlZd1__y60Yb9QqYHyMQ6utoNEml3wj6cmEftEEZVq8cckWiYfqXPKYg4KUStGq06JZaCzZTp93yxPv2jYdEIcxP_1aowL_Ocqgf01yjOqoU/s1600/water+supply.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3X7YyCMtwfNiP2wStSnMk0k2wgM9asv5QlZd1__y60Yb9QqYHyMQ6utoNEml3wj6cmEftEEZVq8cckWiYfqXPKYg4KUStGq06JZaCzZTp93yxPv2jYdEIcxP_1aowL_Ocqgf01yjOqoU/s1600/water+supply.JPG" height="288" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The last thing that would help development of the Corridor immensely is water. Primarily, water is kinda, sorta necessary for human life. One of those limiting factors when you're considering human settlement. You will notice that the proposed corridor should have plentiful water resources, and should do nicely for providing drinking water so long as we don't treat it like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Erie#Eutrophication_and_the_infamous_dead_zone">Lake Erie</a>. I will also take this opportunity to draw your attention to the undeveloped hydroelectricity potential. In keeping with the theme of things I've proposed which have, in fact, been discussed decades previous, it would appear that I was right in suggesting that Ontario should have potential hydro projects <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/08/energy-policy-proposals-numbers-are.html">near James Bay</a> should they prove necessary. As <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2013/02/old-macdonald-had-farm-eroei.html">previously noted</a> in this blog, hydro power delivers phenomenal energy return on energy invested (roughly 100:1 according to whatever source I was reading). Québec and other places uses such large energy sources to run <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium_smelting">aluminum smelters</a> because of the incredibly intense energy demand because it is plentiful, reliable, and comparatively inexpensive. It is <i>terribly</i> convenient that metal ores can only be smelted near hydroelectricity sources, and we happen to have both those things <i>right there.</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Another issue I'd like to briefly touch on is that of the native reserves in Northern Canada. This is a wild guess on my part, but I feel as though part of the problem with the delivery of services, and thus the low quality of life, to many reserves is the fact that they are so far away from the major urban centers. Perhaps if the Corridor were developed they would have an easier time getting social services and our reserves wouldn't be so horrific?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The picture at the top of this post indicates with green circles smaller established areas which could be dramatically expanded to serve further settlement, and I will briefly [with tongue firmly planted in cheek] point out that it is <i>awfully</i> self-serving for a Lakehead publication to suggest Thunder Bay as a region of dramatic expansion. The thick black line indicates possible extensions to existing infrastructure. It also features existing usable road and railway, but I sincerely doubt that it is possible to pick out such small details. Hopefully with these details outlined, my <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/09/a-bigger-better-canada.html">previous post</a> will seem more feasible, at least economically speaking. There's a lot of potential up there, we just have to seize the opportunity.<br />
<br />
Oh, and I'm sure some <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2011/07/switchgrass.html">switchgrass</a> plantations wouldn't go amiss. Those are great for all kinds of things.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-47937469214281657892014-09-18T14:11:00.001-04:002014-09-22T18:44:42.900-04:00A Bigger, Better Canada [MUt3]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUIrwam3OeZzrHAVYkhn2uw03OzMqo9LLV9WaINUN83wxz2drHYQ9RDsAGl7JbSIyFIk8GcfLo9tMHWo4o35CqTL2QfQPRbRHBHLEWHzLU9YpdkqA7-GAUexSadgCEBCOJazytfX4RwS0/s1600/IMAG1252.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUIrwam3OeZzrHAVYkhn2uw03OzMqo9LLV9WaINUN83wxz2drHYQ9RDsAGl7JbSIyFIk8GcfLo9tMHWo4o35CqTL2QfQPRbRHBHLEWHzLU9YpdkqA7-GAUexSadgCEBCOJazytfX4RwS0/s1600/IMAG1252.jpg" height="238" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">We can do it, but we'll have to go North. Pack your snowshoes.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I've often described Canada's economic system as being "a kinder, gentler capitalism." We have no doubt benefited from having a dominant superpower and its domestic market as a customer for our vast natural resources. We have come from a group of fur trappers, loggers and miners to being an advanced economy <i>as well as </i>loggers and miners, thank you very much. That said, for as much land as we have, Canada is only a nation of roughly 35 million people, leaving us as one of the least densely populated countries on the planet.<br />
<br />
Historically, Canada's accomplishments have always looked best on a per capita basis. We tend to punch above our weight as a people, and has given rise to the functional principle. We are not a superpower, nor does it currently look like we will be one in the future. That said, Canada may contend with the world leaders in key functions. This is evidenced by our presence in things like the G7 nations, and our participation in world leading scientific and technological endeavours. For example, you may take the Canadian Light Source pictured below. It is a synchrotron light source (an excellent example of a <a href="http://www.theonion.com/articles/scientists-ask-congress-to-fund-50-billion-science,2291/">big science thing</a>). I could go into the vast technical details, but it is extremely useful in a wide variety of applications from biological imaging to even construction materials. Canada has one of only a handful in the entire world (which are this good), and it is the best used in the world based on access given to researchers and industrial partners/clients.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5PY3TWfkz_DdJI7KYqG7yl2Rvzmzwu26gm3N6QXmSNjCz2tmSnID_SyO22ghEHK6GHwXDQo6aStSYQnjfl_eh3PJPut_RyVSGrdfl9sNR7GfqFz-0Qo5g0jE7oP7Co8CBIBOVASoJo8U/s1600/IMAG0698.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5PY3TWfkz_DdJI7KYqG7yl2Rvzmzwu26gm3N6QXmSNjCz2tmSnID_SyO22ghEHK6GHwXDQo6aStSYQnjfl_eh3PJPut_RyVSGrdfl9sNR7GfqFz-0Qo5g0jE7oP7Co8CBIBOVASoJo8U/s1600/IMAG0698.jpg" height="238" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Canadian Light Source, big science thing extraordinaire.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Our accomplishments are many and impressive. I firmly believe that this is due to our unique combination of capitalism and kindness. We grew out of a country whose winter alone would kill us unmercifully were we to not work together and take care of one another. Our social programs help to ensure that many of the economically disadvantaged may prosper and thus contribute to an impressive economy. Now imagine if there were more of us. A lot more.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
When Wilfred Laurier began his settlement of Western Canada, he envisioned a Canada numbering 60 million. We... well, your monocles may drop in surprise at this, but we have thus far fallen short. Currently, a good number to strive for would appear to be <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/time-to-lead/what-would-a-canada-of-100-million-feel-like-more-comfortable-better-served-better-defended/article4186906/?page=all">100 million</a>. For the gaming-savvy, a variety of achievements might be unlocked at this level. Canada's density poses a problem, because our markets are so few and far between and building the infrastructure to go between these urban centers is cumbersome and costly. Militarily speaking, it also means that large sections of the country could be conquered by simply marching through it. Services like health care and even internet in some cases are hard to deliver because there isn't enough of a market to warrant building the facilities. Even economically, we have a very limited domestic market when you consider our economic output. When a Canadian company wants to make something, it has to ensure that someone else will buy it. It is hypothesized that a domestic market of 100 million people would begin to make us more independent of the rest of the world, and a people as economically prosperous as us would make for excellent consumers.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We are heavily concentrated at the bottom of our country, apparently clinging to the United States. The article from the Globe and Mail linked in the paragraph above (and <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/time-to-lead/what-would-a-canada-of-100-million-feel-like-more-comfortable-better-served-better-defended/article4186906/?page=all">here</a>, if you're lazy) makes excellent points on the matter, but I feel it falls short on an action plan. The suggestion is that we massively boost immigration before developing countries reach economic prosperity and begin to experience shrinking populations. These new Canadians would then go to existing cities, achieving a density which would alleviate our problems of sprawl and unlock tax bases which could fund truly inspiring projects. However, this still leaves our major urban centers few and far between, and there's also the issue that these new Canadians would need something to <i>do</i>.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
To the north of our largest settlements, there exists mid-Canada. It is not the far North, where trees refuse to grow and you have to be wary of the bears. It is not the South, where the factories thump and farms flourish. It is a land south of the permafrost, rich in natural resources and potential. It is a vast corridor of potential wealth waiting to be unleashed.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGkwLYZwsnPZPQqxl8t9a-Ut1UejIXw27YK4tPo23XlEbzHVglyyi7q8xEQ82tIMVEBQ3WnBJMLCPZrZZ08XLklSSdE0k3OWlIm5SkG0BN92NTrL0YTfjBIl00CtqcK39ivxUlT7FgXMg/s1600/corridor.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGkwLYZwsnPZPQqxl8t9a-Ut1UejIXw27YK4tPo23XlEbzHVglyyi7q8xEQ82tIMVEBQ3WnBJMLCPZrZZ08XLklSSdE0k3OWlIm5SkG0BN92NTrL0YTfjBIl00CtqcK39ivxUlT7FgXMg/s1600/corridor.JPG" height="283" width="400" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As a centennial project [from which I am heavily borrowing], researchers at Lakehead University suggested the "Mid-Canada Development Corridor." This has happened if only to a small extent in the intermittent period. Fort McMurray is an example of what the corridor could offer, but larger and more extensive. The idea would be to establish permanent settlements along mid-Canada that could take advantage of several natural resources to provide a diverse economic base and fuel development before other economic activities arise. The hope would be that these larger communities would follow the example of settlement in Northern Ontario. Roads were installed, logging camps were made which cleared out land and created income, eventually developing into permanent settlement. Our nation's capital, Ottawa, originally started as a logging settlement.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This region of Canada is currently short on roadway coverage. That said, there is good air and rail coverage. This means that people may be carried by air until roads catch up, and there appears to be an extensive rail network which can provide efficient <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2014/07/grains-rails-and-regulations.html">rail freight</a> transport. The majority of this corridor is the Canadian Shield and is rich in a variety of minerals as well as untapped hydroelectricity, which has a fantastic <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2013/02/old-macdonald-had-farm-eroei.html">EROEI</a> and would do very well for fueling both development and potentially the smelting of ore. The only real exception to this is the Tundra and Northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, where the primary resource are oil, natural gas, or both. As an interesting note, it was proposed that these settlements could follow the example of Siberian communities which have gas-heated greenhouses to supply fresh produce in the winter. That said, with enough timber around it might be easier to use <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2012/01/rocket-mass-heaters.html">rocket mass heaters</a> for those greenhouses.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
By developing this corridor, Canada would unlock both vast swaths of natural resources which currently sit untapped, as well as the pseudo-magical 100 million tax base to further fuel our development. Remote communities would not be so remote, and could be better served. Perhaps <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2014/09/this-could-get-ugly-or-why-russia.html">some countries</a> would take our claims to the our Arctic archipelago more seriously. Better yet, if our per capita wealth keeps pace as we continue to nurture and encourage every single Canadian, we could become an economic heavyweight and become a major player on the world stage. A nation as great as ours basically owes the world more Canadians. And then there's the fact that we already produce the world's best hockey players, and a larger population would allow us to be <i>even more </i>selective. Think of the hockey.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If nothing else, think of the hockey we could have.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
<div>
<br />
Update (2014-09-22): Part 2 of my Mid-Canada Ramblings may be found <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.com/2014/09/a-bigger-better-canada-appendix-i.html">here</a>.<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
Suggested Reading:<br />
<a href="http://thewalrus.ca/if-we-build-it-they-will-stay/">http://thewalrus.ca/if-we-build-it-they-will-stay/</a></div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.plancanada.com/midcanada_corridor_report.pdf">http://www.plancanada.com/midcanada_corridor_report.pdf</a> (Source of many maps)</div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/time-to-lead/what-would-a-canada-of-100-million-feel-like-more-comfortable-better-served-better-defended/article4186906/?page=all">http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/time-to-lead/what-would-a-canada-of-100-million-feel-like-more-comfortable-better-served-better-defended/article4186906/?page=all</a></div>
<div>
<a href="http://speeches.empireclub.org/61275/data?n=14">http://speeches.empireclub.org/61275/data?n=14</a></div>
<div>
<br />
N.B. This may end up being a living document for a couple days. I keep forgetting to add important details.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-1105010413223914872014-09-06T18:19:00.000-04:002014-09-06T20:06:32.108-04:00Washroom Graffiti: A Bellwether. <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8GLwbPXqmFXeX5vMFY5GfnV0hbQt5_OGW-8dSzbWeZFM8-yTItp6cNZ-bIkfRjdF_V9ap4bUaRa4KY3jqAvOj27GWlTWCaH-u3twJnD1rkGGqY8eDkoKjP3mBWUozOxwol9FSd7Vl9r0/s1600/1280px-AltamiraBison.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8GLwbPXqmFXeX5vMFY5GfnV0hbQt5_OGW-8dSzbWeZFM8-yTItp6cNZ-bIkfRjdF_V9ap4bUaRa4KY3jqAvOj27GWlTWCaH-u3twJnD1rkGGqY8eDkoKjP3mBWUozOxwol9FSd7Vl9r0/s1600/1280px-AltamiraBison.jpg" height="322" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">As long as we've been humans, we've been putting stuff on available walls. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_painting#mediaviewer/File:AltamiraBison.jpg">Source.</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This will be a comparatively small post, but it's back-to-school season and I've been thinking about this particular phenomenon a lot. Naturally, I'd love some [G+] feedback below because I am genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, but I assume the comments section will be a barren wasteland as per usual.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
When I attended the University of Ottawa, for better or worse, I did not spend a tonne of time in Morriset Library. However, when I had those marathon study sessions with my friends, or when I spent many consecutive days in there to study or work on a project, washroom visits became a necessity. I would also like to pause here and congratulate my alma mater on keeping a proper coffee shop (i.e. Second Cup) in its main library. While visiting these stalls, as with many stalls, one would find graffiti. I'd say that I never gave it much thought, but frankly, the Morriset washroom graffiti was legitimately thought provoking. Catalogued within those stalls were actual philosophical or moral debates, rebuttals below the original post and often in a different colour. Sometimes they would be motivational slogans. Often, because it was and is a bilingual institution, the commentary was in both English and French. And once in the washrooms in the Marion basement men's room, there was a zig-zag line which was subsequently decorated with functional groups and ultimately the IUPAC name of the molecule which this drawing had become.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8FSGkPbpls3pahGWJ8lujpyaj7Exi70K_2ONnd8OeCfp1KHG1P59h2eL8s2busqmoRgu2qAsVGRWCSKdx2lRDAtInsVZb0pZf6ZCGUXeMOttIX6_nNm3Fq1_8ugJlA5T-nxHGd_vtV3U/s1600/420erryday.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8FSGkPbpls3pahGWJ8lujpyaj7Exi70K_2ONnd8OeCfp1KHG1P59h2eL8s2busqmoRgu2qAsVGRWCSKdx2lRDAtInsVZb0pZf6ZCGUXeMOttIX6_nNm3Fq1_8ugJlA5T-nxHGd_vtV3U/s1600/420erryday.jpg" height="256" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This picture is now everywhere on the internet, so I can't be sure of the original <a href="http://ca.complex.com/style/2013/09/art-bathroom-plaques">source</a>. But still, hilarious.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As with most interesting phenomena I come across, I discussed this with my friends. That was the time at which I realised that this was not par for the course. Having now attended Western University, I have also discovered that the overwhelming majority of graffiti at other institutions is not necessarily of the same calibre and is mostly homophobic slurs paired, ironically, with oftentimes vast and elaborate depictions of the male genitalia. That said, it has been reported that there can be [extremely] encouraging messages left in the washrooms of Carleton (pictured below). This raises several questions. I wonder how much of Carleton's graffiti is more up-beat and how much is philosophical, as it seems to be a happy place, albeit an intellectual black hole as far as the anecdotes are concerned. As I write that last statement, I can already hear the heated retort that "... well at least I don't speak French!"<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVRY0TU-z-87NGHbIo3Du4UgSo3Vz0nSeS7WVyT2Gtt69NqN90lUHm2syfTA90lKCuUH9kXsVGy7rCFSZELZuf3X6pxS1SX3LK1wCUWYB0lz4jUMPwgaRSPM3otLdHtBYUwrx8j2yuvkM/s1600/10006507_410090312461344_1867659473_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVRY0TU-z-87NGHbIo3Du4UgSo3Vz0nSeS7WVyT2Gtt69NqN90lUHm2syfTA90lKCuUH9kXsVGy7rCFSZELZuf3X6pxS1SX3LK1wCUWYB0lz4jUMPwgaRSPM3otLdHtBYUwrx8j2yuvkM/s1600/10006507_410090312461344_1867659473_n.jpg" height="208" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Seen at Carleton by Rebecca Hay, <a href="http://rebeccaelisehay.com/">artist</a> and founder of the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/JustOneThingFacesOfMentalIllness">Just One Thing</a> mental health initiative.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div>
Digressions aside, this raises further questions for me. Ottawa, Carleton, Wilfred Laurier, and Western are known by outsiders as: snooty and miserable; happy and a cognitive wasteland; happy party school; happy party school. Their graffiti is thought provoking, motivational, homophobic slurs, and homophobic slurs respectively. But what is the story elsewhere? I <i>highly</i> encourage you to leave a comment below (so that all may peruse), with the perception of your school and the predominant graffiti you encounter. Finally, should you find yourself looking at an institution at which to study, go to the washroom and enter a stall. It could tell you a lot about the place.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-41837741903625622542014-09-01T23:26:00.000-04:002014-09-11T00:49:17.309-04:00"This could get ugly," or why Russia scares me.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYL-E5xvSwODhNw_3swZ21mxUR2y-NLLvDdHLaXrB-rLS7rGWlpkknayvc5FGTRR3hRmXjLnM_3RhXayFtD_mmGx0yPSd_CRZn7w5aoSzZMM6zK2PWUJSQmlyJJhEPtrFUtGXN9BIJJck/s1600/Russian+tanks+in+Ukraine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYL-E5xvSwODhNw_3swZ21mxUR2y-NLLvDdHLaXrB-rLS7rGWlpkknayvc5FGTRR3hRmXjLnM_3RhXayFtD_mmGx0yPSd_CRZn7w5aoSzZMM6zK2PWUJSQmlyJJhEPtrFUtGXN9BIJJck/s1600/Russian+tanks+in+Ukraine.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Satellite imagery showing Russian tanks in Ukrainian sovereign territory. <a href="http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pictures/2014_08_140828a-sat-imagery-ukraine-fl/20140828_140828a-001.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'll start by saying that this post might in fact be needlessly alarmist. I'll also say that I might be hopelessly overreacting. However, this blog was created as an outlet for my thoughts, and I plan to leave this post up in perpetuity in order to document my reactions and feelings from late August 2014. Now, on with the hysterics.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
On the 21st of August 2014, NATO released satellite imagery of Russian tanks in Ukrainian sovereign territory. This was after an outright annexation of the Crimean peninsula almost immediately after the conclusion of the winter Olympic games in Sochi. At the time, I likened it to the Nazi annexation of the Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhclPOL04fkTU33kR4RthKbOweBnHZ0tPihDPMelWKe-1Ghd_VTzKBXMsrLHioAt8hnTbAZ57BZyuXgDTgc58n995TWELyLL4u0zE3MU2p21sO1c8xGDdI1fS9Oiemyr3_FwOr9GilpFQQ/s1600/Russia+Crimea.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhclPOL04fkTU33kR4RthKbOweBnHZ0tPihDPMelWKe-1Ghd_VTzKBXMsrLHioAt8hnTbAZ57BZyuXgDTgc58n995TWELyLL4u0zE3MU2p21sO1c8xGDdI1fS9Oiemyr3_FwOr9GilpFQQ/s1600/Russia+Crimea.JPG" height="120" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pictured: Hysterics.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
In fact, I was so concerned about the situation in Crimea that, while high on pain killers the next day, I kept demanding updates on the situation in Crimea from a very patient nursing staff. In both cases, the invading country cited a need to assimilate an ethnic minority and to protect them. An excellent rebuttal to this was provided by a research associate who exclaimed "Seriously? Why doesn't Ukraine march in to claim the ethnic Ukrainians in Saskatchewan? That's a terrible argument!"<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The western world has responded with economic sanctions. In the face of this most recent incursion, threats of increased, more serious sanctions have been leveled. I am not certain that sanctions will be enough, as Russia functioned just fine as the Soviet Union for several decades without help from the outside world.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'm also reminded of a rant I had about five years ago at the Black Tomato in Ottawa. Excellent beer selection on tap, should you find yourself in the Byward Market. I had just been prodded on the subject of Russia, and I immediately launched into several reasons why I didn't trust the governing regime. They came quickly and easily to mind.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijwi8LdnM7Mt719luBVrAZAKt8NuBOTeVI_kciRbYWkj0d517_YLFm3v732VXYdEIHtmvv4HIN7UA0F-gn9qoouRIrik3eE2zH4EE9ic0AlNmkMfvKX1-UZ7jP9I1G_GG9Wh2uAvGFrvk/s1600/Viktor_Yuschenko.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijwi8LdnM7Mt719luBVrAZAKt8NuBOTeVI_kciRbYWkj0d517_YLFm3v732VXYdEIHtmvv4HIN7UA0F-gn9qoouRIrik3eE2zH4EE9ic0AlNmkMfvKX1-UZ7jP9I1G_GG9Wh2uAvGFrvk/s1600/Viktor_Yuschenko.jpg" height="266" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Viktor Yushenko, third President of Ukraine. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yushchenko#mediaviewer/File:Viktor_Yuschenko.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Yushenko was a politician aiming for the presidency of Ukraine on a platform of aligning Ukraine more closely with the West as opposed to its historically close ties with Russia. The pro-Russian opponent won the election, but soon thereafter widespread allegations of election fraud abounded. Ukraine actually underwent what is known as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution">Orange Revolution</a> in the wake of the fraudulent election which ultimately saw Yushenko take the presidency. However, Yushenko did not escape the election unscathed. See his cheeks in that picture? Those pock marks are the result of dioxin poisoning. Mysterious circumstances surround this, but the perpetrators were pro-Russian if not actually Russian. Also, on the topic of election fraud, here's <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/109/41/16469.full.pdf+html">a paper</a> on detecting election fraud, and how the 2011 Russian election fits a model for systematic stuffing of ballot boxes.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvCPehWXAM0jg8hj4NtBr19K2oVrUb4jIItvLnNeK1tZKztE0LGYfeWZ8mvbjEjygOaZhy6oQAJ4zbzfjyspGZgnE0S0JfWN5-T4l15EGyh6Hc_fm4ZDnDMcYF2MKovBgO2NdmSWQVpu0/s1600/AlexanderLitvinenkoHospital.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvCPehWXAM0jg8hj4NtBr19K2oVrUb4jIItvLnNeK1tZKztE0LGYfeWZ8mvbjEjygOaZhy6oQAJ4zbzfjyspGZgnE0S0JfWN5-T4l15EGyh6Hc_fm4ZDnDMcYF2MKovBgO2NdmSWQVpu0/s1600/AlexanderLitvinenkoHospital.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Alexander Litvenenko. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Litvinenko#mediaviewer/File:AlexanderLitvinenkoHospital.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Alexander Litvenenko was once an agent of the Soviet Union's spy agency the KGB. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, he became involved in the nation's security forces (or something, honestly I'm not really clear on it). Then what happened? Suddenly he became critical of the leadership, and was allegedly dismissed on direct orders from Putin. Not long after, he defied an order not to leave the country and sought asylum in the United Kingdom. While there, he became a journalist and started hurling accusations of corruption at the new Russian government, potentially attempting to blackmail some of the higher up officials. Whatever the facts, it was bad enough that somebody wanted him dead. That party got what they wanted. Litvenenko ultimately died of Cold War-style polonium poisoning, leaving him the shell of a man you see above.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So admittedly one could never make a case against Russia on these two cases. Anyone could have been the one to poison either of them, and not necessary due to Putin's actions. However, one can begin to notice a trend. You're critical of Russia, and things start going poorly for you. According to the <a href="http://cpj.org/killed/">Committee to Protect Journalists</a>, Russia is currently the fifth deadliest place to be a journalist. What's above Russia on that list? Iraq, Philippines, Syria, Algeria. So a couple active war zones.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The other cases that came to mind that night in Ottawa? There's the issue that <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2009/02/28/back_off_and_stay_out_of_our_airspace_russia.html">Russian fighters keep entering Canadian airspace</a> and require an escort. To wit: Russian aircraft <a href="http://www.vox.com/2014/8/29/6083849/russia-finland-airspace-nato-membership">thrice</a> entered Finnish airspace last week. Also? That time that Russia <a href="http://www.vox.com/2014/8/29/6083849/russia-finland-airspace-nato-membership">cut off the gas supply to Europe</a> due to a pricing dispute. It's worth noting that the Ukrainian president which signed the deal that ultimately made the gas flow once more was indicted for abuse of power as a result of signing that deal.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'd also like to point out that NATO appears to be chomping at the bit. NATO was the authority who released <a href="http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/photos_112202.htm">satellite images</a> of a Russian incursion into Ukraine. NATO was also created as a mutual defense scheme to deter attack from the Soviet Union (or any other aggressor, but it's doubtful any other world power would choose to pick a fight with NATO). Ukraine has also made an emergency decision to attempt to join the treaty organisation, and has asked for its assistance in driving Russian forces from its territory. This is in stark contrast to their <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Popular_opinion_in_Ukraine">anti-NATO position</a> which they have more or less solidly held since 2002. But for now, the international community appears happy to stay with sanctions.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Frankly, I'm not sure Putin will cave to external political pressure. He has proven himself to be an exceedingly strong leader and thus has a history of getting what he wants; I'm not sure anything short of military force will remove Russian military vehicles from Ukraine. On the other hand, maybe economic sanctions will work. Or will economic sanctions make Russia increasingly desperate? We shall see. Hopefully we'll laugh about this in five years, and my friends will be reading this article aloud as a method of amused derision.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
P.S. I really hope that was an appropriately placed semicolon.<br />
<br />
Update: <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russian-military-planes-buzzed-hmcs-toronto-in-black-sea-1.2759843?cmp=fbtl&utm_content=buffer3974b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=plus.google.com&utm_campaign=buffer">Russian fighters circle Canadian frigate en route to NATO exercise in Black Sea</a>, reminiscent of Cold War-style behaviours.<br />
<br />
Update (2014-09-11): <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/10/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0H50YB20140910?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews">Russian forces withdrawing</a>! WOOOOO!</div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-79411374274136609202014-08-25T22:27:00.000-04:002014-09-06T15:45:55.587-04:00Energy policy proposals; numbers are hard. [EBP5]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr9UdWn-orzc-if3z34JkKP5lMYwUnyXAcJ6lhUuEFPjbsq1mWuarDKGJXgGUJDDqrsOfxJz0HL1lIWogjHH3fMAqLodZdpYy7YN-b3mE0y5hCEdkaKKJTSRfNJVDmJQk5SYUszqs5F80/s1600/%C3%89vacuateur_de_crues_R-B.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr9UdWn-orzc-if3z34JkKP5lMYwUnyXAcJ6lhUuEFPjbsq1mWuarDKGJXgGUJDDqrsOfxJz0HL1lIWogjHH3fMAqLodZdpYy7YN-b3mE0y5hCEdkaKKJTSRfNJVDmJQk5SYUszqs5F80/s1600/%C3%89vacuateur_de_crues_R-B.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Spillway from the Robert-Bourassa Generating Station in Québec. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert-Bourassa_generating_station#mediaviewer/File:%C3%89vacuateur_de_crues_R-B.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I don't know if any of you will remember this, but I sure do. During the last Ontario election, I [perhaps mistakenly] recall hearing a lot of politicians calling for Ontario to shutter its nuclear plants due to cost and safety concerns in favour of importing excess energy from our neighbours. Not only that, but The Star ran an <u><a href="http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2014/07/20/ontario_should_import_lowcost_hydroelectric_power_from_quebec.html">opinion piece</a></u> echoing what I had heard a lot: rather than expanding and upkeeping Ontario's nuclear generation capacity, we should simply shutter them and import low-cost hydroelectricity from Manitoba and Québec.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now, on its surface this appears to be a reasonable proposal. My intelligent, attractive, monocle- and top hat- clad readers will no doubt remember <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2013/02/old-macdonald-had-farm-eroei.html">my praise</a> of hydroelectric power based on the energy returned on energy invested. As a result, the energy is indeed cheap comparatively speaking. Further, our Francophone friends are exporting a lot of power to New England for less than we pay to generate nuclear power. There is, however, one problem with this scheme. There's not enough.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL4FphjbtF6kM_w1QTGAE_3Gr-uuEinxOddAKwfUtceFScK8y517wivIZtlrsl_wFg6rHNPaOqn_F3MuwgkcsvVCBs23F_tSCHZh2hZJysj5wbFIV48lUyDNK39FLh9FRWC29RtssaZTw/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL4FphjbtF6kM_w1QTGAE_3Gr-uuEinxOddAKwfUtceFScK8y517wivIZtlrsl_wFg6rHNPaOqn_F3MuwgkcsvVCBs23F_tSCHZh2hZJysj5wbFIV48lUyDNK39FLh9FRWC29RtssaZTw/s1600/Capture.JPG" height="162" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<u><a href="http://media.cns-snc.ca/ontarioelectricity/ontarioelectricity.html">Source</a></u>, retrieved 2014-08-25-21:30</div>
<br />
At any given moment Ontario's nuclear plants, with some of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_power_stations_in_the_world#Nuclear">highest capacity in the world</a>, are generating about 10 GW of power. That's gigawatts. To quote the great Rick Mercer, that's alotta poutine. That's also GW, not GWh. The -h suffix means "hours" and refers to the amount of energy that has been produced in one hour. Your energy bill is usually on the order of kWh to refer to the amount of energy that has been used in a few months. So Ontario is outputting that amount of nuclear power almost constantly, every hour of every day. That amounts to around half of Ontario's generating capacity, but it will frequently represent a larger fraction of the actual generated energy because of the variable nature of hydro, wind and gas plants. At the moment shown above, it is sitting at 57% of generated energy, though this is an off-peak hour.<br />
<br />
If we look to another <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydro-Qu%C3%A9bec">Wikipedia page</a>, we can see that the sum total of Québec's energy exports in 2011 amounted to 26,763 GWh. Based on quick, dirty, back-of-the-envelope calculations, if we took all of that energy at a rate of 10 GW, it would only replace Ontario's nuclear reactors for 112 days. That's not even a third of a year. I suppose rough approximations would indicate that that means it's only exporting about 3 GW of power at any given time. This also assumes that you could convince our neighbour to stop exporting to New England altogether and allowing Ontario to be the exclusive purchaser.<br />
<br />
So Québec does not generate enough hydroelectricity to replace Ontario's nuclear reactors. "But wait!" you shout, slamming your fist on your desk, or perhaps grasping at your forehead, "Manitoba! Surely Manitoba could help!" Well, perhaps that's true. I'll admit, before checking the numbers I was not optimistic, Manitoba not being known for heavy industry or other energy-intensive applications. As it turns out, my doubts were well-founded. Manitoba's current hydroelectric capacity is on the order of Québec's exports, as near as <a href="http://www.hydro.mb.ca/corporate/facilities/generating_stations.shtml">this page</a> would suggest. In 2012, Manitoba's hydroelectric generating capacity was 5485 MW, or just over 5 GW. In fairness, Manitoba has no need to produce a lot more power unless they want to export, as it would appear that they are meeting over 90% of its demand with hydro alone.<br />
<br />
So that we're clear, if Québec diverted all of its energy exports to Ontario, and Manitoba diverted the entirety of its hydroelectricity to Ontario, it still would not be enough to replace Ontario's nuclear generating capacity. And, while I've got you, I should note that a lot of the drive behind hydroelectric development is from environmentally-conscious types. It should be noted that all types of energy have an impact, and [as friend-of-the-blog Jeff P. pointed out to me] hydro is no exception. A reservoir usually needs to be flooded when a dam is installed, which leaches water-soluble chemicals into the water, at least temporarily throwing the local ecosystem out of whack and potentially killing its inhabitants en masse, or negating its usefulness for things like irrigation. And that's just the nutrients. The American eel is, conservatively speaking, near-extinct in the St. Lawrence and Ottawa Rivers because they have been turned into pink slime by turbines.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwtwjUkL3M9DFxeUeo6syv1OwEUe9u1Ncr2lz4BqafAOZ4t2HocPH0v7semAS95l8s7QoVXPIMtk3HQ9kC1vrfGlFKCrqouqihw0qiciXf7hJdpVfW023OjKjiKMWSRau5RleidiZIZWs/s1600/American_Eel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwtwjUkL3M9DFxeUeo6syv1OwEUe9u1Ncr2lz4BqafAOZ4t2HocPH0v7semAS95l8s7QoVXPIMtk3HQ9kC1vrfGlFKCrqouqihw0qiciXf7hJdpVfW023OjKjiKMWSRau5RleidiZIZWs/s1600/American_Eel.jpg" height="168" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Not nearly as cute as it is threatened. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_eel#mediaviewer/File:American_Eel.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
Manitoba, as it turns out, is also planning a large number of developments along the Nelson River, which could double its generating capacity in the future. This is not unlike how Québec wound up with such a large generating capacity, in the 1960s and 1970s they built several large hydroelectric generating stations near James Bay (just off Hudson's Bay, into which the Nelson River drains). It would appear then, that if Ontario truly wants to replace its [big, scary] nuclear generating capacity with hydroelectricity, more needs to be developed within Ontario. The problem with that is that, as I understand it, all the commercially viable hydroelectric sites in southern Ontario are already developed. To generate enough to replace its nukes, Ontario might in fact have to turn to the Arctic watershed as Manitoba and Québec have done, Ontario also having access to James and Hudson's Bays. It would take <i>a lot</i> of transmission lines to get the power from the North to its southern markets, but that is the nature of these things. Ontario needs to decide as a province whether it wants to continue with nuclear power or develop cheap hydroelectric capacity where possible. <br />
<br />
It would likely take decades of investment, like in Québec, but could potentially be worth it with the promise of cheap power in an industry-heavy province currently struggling with high energy prices. Sure would have made a nice post-2008 Keynesian* <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2012/10/r-other-better-stimulus-ebp2.html">stimulus</a> project.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
* Keynes proposed that stimulus projects should focus on public infrastructure because even if the spending failed to stimulate the economy as hoped, at the very least you'd be left with things you needed anyway.</div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-999112634040714982014-07-01T12:51:00.002-04:002014-07-01T12:51:41.108-04:00Grains, Rails, and Regulations.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQwT0sul5oAVgMZOZISuaHXPKO6Vvhnve5iHbreLvXV_LpubwZmPSuDyIW_zWdRKYy56Lpf1xt0XHHcifWBreGAZW6KvjSsnS3y5cZ2fOy_1L2bG6Vys8MSwjiCjIBSTVan4a-1blMP8/s1600/1146663_10100555228974696_658168378_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQwT0sul5oAVgMZOZISuaHXPKO6Vvhnve5iHbreLvXV_LpubwZmPSuDyIW_zWdRKYy56Lpf1xt0XHHcifWBreGAZW6KvjSsnS3y5cZ2fOy_1L2bG6Vys8MSwjiCjIBSTVan4a-1blMP8/s1600/1146663_10100555228974696_658168378_n.jpg" height="239" width="400" /></a></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhws4pxkUFqzGgWImxfPV8FnuTx6IsQ7SDppJk8wm5TgxuZAGO63SPfqtLN5TarS-X3QFYbbiByg_ilFtbUvQCDzhAs8J7znOkXAUEtjMuv4LF8Qq0yQsJImTDD86swmEngYNEebGlmSz8/s1600/16257_10100555228680286_1237122370_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhws4pxkUFqzGgWImxfPV8FnuTx6IsQ7SDppJk8wm5TgxuZAGO63SPfqtLN5TarS-X3QFYbbiByg_ilFtbUvQCDzhAs8J7znOkXAUEtjMuv4LF8Qq0yQsJImTDD86swmEngYNEebGlmSz8/s1600/16257_10100555228680286_1237122370_n.jpg" height="400" width="238" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">British Columbia agreed to join confederation if it would be provided rail access to the East. They would be the last province to join Canada until Newfoundland figured out they were missing out on a great time.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
I have wanted to write about trains for a while, so expect this to be a long and rambling post fueled in equal parts by coffee, home brewed beer, excitement for Canada's 147th birthday, and Oxford commas. A nation as large and diverse as Canada presents a special challenge for finding unifying themes that do not involve federal policy or apologising. So I choose today to write about a technology that has unified our great nested nations, rail.<br />
<br />
I can only imagine that you, dear readers, wearing your special Canada Day (or vintage Dominion Day) top hats and monocles, are wondering whether rail really is important in our present day. I can tell you that for a great deal of people, it most assuredly is. Ignoring the obvious arguments regarding the jobs involved in rail, many rural Canadians were supremely irked by rail service in the spring of 2014. Many CBC Radio One listeners might remember the call in shows, or perhaps you spent time in a rural coffee shop (i.e. Tim Horton's. Yes, I mean i.e. and not e.g.), around that time, and you listened to the exclamations that the railroads and/or Government hates farmers. Last year, the prairie provinces had a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Alberta_floods">wet summer</a> that led to higher-than-average grain crops when a record harvest was already anticipated. It ended up exceeding expectations by a third (which, in this case, represents excess millions of tonnes of grain). It appears that from reviewing the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cp-rail-boss-hunter-harrison-blasts-grain-backlog-legislation-1.2589961">relevant</a> <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bill-to-speed-grain-shipment-won-t-fix-current-backlogs-say-critics-1.2583920">news</a> <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-tables-legislation-to-clear-grain-transportation-backlog-1.2587824">coverage</a>, when the harvest came in for the fall of 2013, there was so much grain that farmers waited for prices to go up before selling to the elevators. What followed was what has been termed a "rough winter." During inclement weather, railroad operators operate at 70% capacity to ensure that adequate braking can be provided by the locomotives on potentially icy rails, meaning that the shipment of grain was slowed even further. Come spring, elevators collectively faced with teragrams of grain began to panic ever so slightly.<br />
<br />
It was at this point that the Federal government decided to step in. For better or worse, an Order-in-Council was passed requiring both CP and CN railways to ship 5000 cars worth of grain each per week or face $100,000/day fines, along with temporarily loosened regulations to allow more freedom to transport grain. Coincidentally, this is almost exactly the same excess capacity that the rail companies had in the fall of 2013 before the harsh winter set in. The CEOs of the respective companies warned of bottlenecks when the grain arrived to port. I have not seen coverage of what ultimately happened, but the takeaway message here is that even today railways can evoke very strong feelings.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7wKaI09Sbse9rbsHqMwlbBsTE6n4LBKZpUrMIATDTzGYaBspKMYlakd6h-obg3aqJy_yPtuAuS5L_iE_3SLJ0rj13s9FsZpZZOL7DEVdQsHtl_ZYh8sPsgCNNMxfkPvJYPeM88yesMLc/s1600/1157608_10100555136849316_1505906725_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7wKaI09Sbse9rbsHqMwlbBsTE6n4LBKZpUrMIATDTzGYaBspKMYlakd6h-obg3aqJy_yPtuAuS5L_iE_3SLJ0rj13s9FsZpZZOL7DEVdQsHtl_ZYh8sPsgCNNMxfkPvJYPeM88yesMLc/s1600/1157608_10100555136849316_1505906725_n.jpg" height="400" width="238" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The view from the apartment in Calgary, looks like coal headed East. It's interesting to note that I moved to an apartment a five minute walk from a CP Rail line.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Adjusting your monocle, I imagine you, most attractive and intelligent reader, are wondering why rail is such a big deal, why on Earth it would evoke such strong emotions. The reason is simple: trains are ridiculously efficient. There is simply no more efficient method of transporting freight over land than with trains. For this reason, <a href="http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/proof-that-trains-are-still-unbeatable-for-moving-stuff-around-the-planet">11000 km</a> of rail are currently re-creating the Silk Route in order to create a trade link between China and Germany. Why? When an entire train is considered, one liter of fuel will carry one ton of stuff for 185 km. There is simply no better way of moving masses of stuff over land than by rail. This is, of course, why grain farmers in Canada get so upset when they cannot ship by rail. Without that efficiency, it would not be worth transporting. In an interesting note, the method by which this fuel economy is achieved is fascinating. In the case of CP rail anyway, a traction diesel-electric hybrid is often employed. In this method, a diesel engine is operated at its optimal rpm, this energy is converted to electricity and is used to run an electric motor at very high efficiencies. It's similar to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_disk_engine">shockwave engine</a> that MIT thinks will revolutionise passenger vehicles by exploiting high-efficiency combustion engine operation coupled to already efficient electric motors.<br />
<br />
Naturally, low transportation costs mean that a variety of valuable goods will be shipped via rail. Especially when commodity prices are high and no other viable methods of transportation exist, rail freight will be considered as a transportation option. This is why oil transportation by rail has skyrocketed in Canada in recent years. Whereas pipelines are facing stiff opposition from environmentalists and the politicians who represent them, oil companies can profitably ship their product by rail if necessary. Being in the [strong and] free society that we are, it is the right of the company to operate this way. And, considering that publicly traded companies have a legal obligation to maximise profits, they will. Despite accusations from grain farmers that rail companies only care about oil and not farmers, it becomes an economic necessity to ship oil by rail where no other options are available.<br />
<br />
As a result of the high price of oil, increased production/shipment, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/just-before-lac-m%C3%A9gantic-railways-sought-to-reduce-inspections-1.2522750">deregulation</a>, things will go wrong. The disaster at Lac-Mégantic, in my opinion, is a prime example of why deregulation doesn't work. When companies are allowed to police themselves, and they are also required to maximise profits, it creates a conflict of interest and independent review is crucial to safe operation for the benefit of both the operators and the citizenry. It's also important to remember that Canadian pipelines are a comparatively (to different shipment methods and the pipelines of other countries), safe mode of oil transportation. The demand for oil is not decreasing, and companies will ship a valuable product by any means necessary.<br />
<br />
So, trains, eh? When the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans were bridged in Canada in 1885, I'm not even sure what the primary shipments would have been, though lumber, grain and coal seem likely candidates. It was the promise of a rail link that brought British Columbia to Confederation, and the railways helped build the country. Today they continue operating, linking manufacturers, farmers, and their ilk to port cities and international markets. Ontario currently has plans to establish a rail link to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ontario_Ring_of_Fire">Ring of Fire</a> so that mines may be opened and the region developed economically. And, given the efficiency of the mode, rail will continue to be an integral part of Canada's sustainable development.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
P.S. Now if only we could get trains to run on <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2011/07/biofuels.html">syngas or methanol</a>...NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-34264483521242309522014-01-11T13:05:00.000-05:002014-01-11T22:16:17.229-05:00The National Research Council of Canada. [EBP0]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a1/CNDNRC_Sign_Ottawa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a1/CNDNRC_Sign_Ottawa.jpg" height="254" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A plaque at NRC Headquarters on Sussex Dr. in Ottawa. <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a1/CNDNRC_Sign_Ottawa.jpg">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
Having finally and officially graduated Cum Laude from the University of Ottawa with a BSc(Hons), I have been reflecting upon the goals I had before leaving for Ottawa in 2006. Part of my reason for studying here was that I had been accepted into the co-operative education program, and I also knew that the National Research Council (NRC) was active in Ottawa. I hoped, as a young high school student that I might be able to be a part of the NRC during my studies. I believe in the importance of both the Public Service and science in general, and felt that this would be a wonderful marriage of the two.<br />
<br />
In short, I accomplished this goal. A professor in a fourth year class asked if anyone was interested in graduate studies or a co-op term at the NRC, and I was very interested. I studied/worked at the NRC's Institute for Chemical Process and Environmental Technology (ICPET) for eight months' time researching electrocatalysts for the oxygen reduction reaction [that is to say, I tried to make fuel cells more efficient]. I was thrilled. I had never before experienced actual research, learning things that no human being had learned before, and it was wonderful. However, during my time at ICPET I learned that the NRC was undergoing trends which I found disturbing.<br />
<br />
The NRC is entrusted with providing a few key scientific services to Canadians, such as timekeeping, standards and measurement. The NRC is also an extension of academia not unlike Canada's universities, where excellent scientists from around the world come to work. A collection of brilliant people getting paid to do what they do best is undoubtedly a recipe for success, and the available data supports this. In the past, the tax revenue generated (from spin off companies and patents) has exceeded the federal investment in the Council. Not only does the NRC break even, but larger investments from the federal government results in geometric growth of revenue generated [more like an exponential increase than a linear/steady one].<br />
<br />
It would then logically follow that the course of action for the federal government should be obvious. Maintaining a healthy investment in the NRC would lead to increased tax revenue, and in some cases, the creation of entire industries. I encourage you to look up the stories of canola oil and Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. Both are creations of the NRC, and both have been tremendous successes. In any case, an investment in the NRC is a safe one. It benefits the government and citizens financially, and it develops a knowledge-based economy in Canada. This is why it surprised me to learn that the NRC was being expected to rein in its spending.<br />
<br />
Had these cuts simply been a result of the global recession which started in the late aughts, I would have completely understood. While the NRC is certainly important, the government is forced to make difficult decisions, and science cannot be expected to win out over all stimulus initiatives and essential functions. However, many of these cuts were the result of a philosophical shift. The NRC was expected to "be more self sufficient." This statement raised eyebrows across academia, and should have done so in the general public as well. Rather than requiring federal investment, the Council was expected to obtain its operating budget by contracting its services. In fairness, if this meant that Canadian companies would benefit from an infrastructure built by the federal government, I could see the logic and importance of such an initiative. The problem is that most of the contracts that I heard about were from international sources. Therefore, an infrastructure built with public Canadian funds is essentially whoring itself out to anyone with the money. Not only that, but experimental results which may be of great significance to the country may not be communicated due to contract terms. For example, I am still not supposed to divulge my experimental results, or my working group could be sued.<br />
<br />
When the NRC's latest president, appointed by the Rt. Hon. Stephen Harper and a product of the Alberta Oil industry came to ICPET, he congratulated us on being so self sufficient, and told us that the NRC's other Institutes needed to become more like us. In my opinion, this meant that the entirety of the NRC should be rendered a money pit for the federal government, rather than a smart investment of public funds. This fits with the political ideology of the Tories [Conservatives], that government should be small and funding should be cut. By this point in my post [if you got this far], I hope you share in my frustration.<br />
<br />
I will half-heartedly apologize for a ranting post, but I feel the issue is important, and I am not entirely sure what to do about it. My co-workers told me to try not to think too much about it, to be happy and silent that I was still getting paid. If you have suggestions, please comment. Should you feel the urge to write angry letters to your local newspaper and read up on the subject, please do so. Hopefully the truth will liveth and conquereth, as stated above.<br />
<br />
NM<br />
<br />
P.S. This post was originally written on 2011/11/06. I refrained from hitting the publish button, as I was not sure that it was worth being in the public sphere (particularly the likening of the NRC to a lady of the evening). If you are reading this, I changed my mind.<br />
<br />
P.P.S. 2014-01-11 A couple years and no change later, I hit publish. It also appears I've changed how I write dates in that time, too.NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-43107781633124092132013-11-21T11:55:00.002-05:002015-03-16T23:56:17.379-04:00Waist-to-Height Ratio [EBP 4]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ8q3wfBKjNNiw5YECZ1hyphenhyphen6sC72y98VjXNKAhi18mS4S3SYi_EI9KzG9wCfhfUcpVhOPJ2AasEhgq_1bCJbgZkrDrMuBAevLKisBgxAN3-hcdcFXxMcyEqw966sc0pAM1Uz1yPUT0LM1Q/s1600/figures.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ8q3wfBKjNNiw5YECZ1hyphenhyphen6sC72y98VjXNKAhi18mS4S3SYi_EI9KzG9wCfhfUcpVhOPJ2AasEhgq_1bCJbgZkrDrMuBAevLKisBgxAN3-hcdcFXxMcyEqw966sc0pAM1Uz1yPUT0LM1Q/s1600/figures.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This was really the best picture I could find that wasn't a slim-waisted model with a casually draped measuring tape. <a href="http://jas-townsend.com/measure.php">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<br />
I'm sure I don't have to tell you that obesity has become problematic in North America. In Canada, it could prove to be an especially difficult problem due to the health consequences associated with obesity coupled with the publicly-funded nature of our health care system. Another problem is that defining or measuring "obesity" is particularly difficult. The Body Mass Index (BMI) has been widely used since the 1970s, and it is proportional to a persons weight divided by the square of their height. This has worked fairly well over large populations, particularly for identifying where mortality risks increase, though it has the obvious weakness of not taking muscular or skeletal structure into account. So, is there a better way?<br />
<br />
Really and truly, the thing with which we should concern ourselves is body fat percentage. This would automatically take into account muscular and skeletal structure and give an accurate picture. This is also difficult or expensive to measure. One way is to use calipers to take a flap of skin and measure the fat tissue underneath, but to get an accurate picture one needs to a) own a set of Vernier calipers and b) have the proper training to convert this measurement. Another way is to pass a small electrical current through the body (usually through the feet) to measure the resistance. Muscular tissue will have a lower resistance than adipose tissue (or perhaps vice versa), and the net resistance can be converted to body fat percentage. The problem with this method that it varies not only by gender but also by race, and the test is only calibrated well to white males. The final common way to measure a persons body fat percentage is to suspend them in a sling/chair sort of apparatus attached to a scale, not unlike the tray you can find in a grocery store to weigh your fruits and vegetables. The person sitting in the sling is then submerged in a pool and the change in weight due to buoyancy force is recorded. Since adipose or "fatty" tissue occupies more volume with less mass, it will contribute to the water exerting a greater buoyancy force on the body. So the greater the change in weight from dry to submerged, the greater the body fat percentage.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipHQa161uFAt0jqAkNbpBwrU4UEv-E0ruvFofDIHG1hnCX4TmmyXBl41v5cbVpS0ftQK_6E9DQUmsGwchmXX2kkimZXun4grKFYVWubm7rZIfUaFOhb9CBQPBo8ib9RHWeDdczz0wvLk4/s1600/hydrostatic-weighing-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipHQa161uFAt0jqAkNbpBwrU4UEv-E0ruvFofDIHG1hnCX4TmmyXBl41v5cbVpS0ftQK_6E9DQUmsGwchmXX2kkimZXun4grKFYVWubm7rZIfUaFOhb9CBQPBo8ib9RHWeDdczz0wvLk4/s1600/hydrostatic-weighing-1.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It's tricky to describe in words. <a href="http://www.romanfitnesssystems.com/blog/on-bodyfat-measurements-three-methods-of-note/">Source</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span id="goog_209687519"></span>
Unfortunately, all methods of measuring body fat percentage involve specialised training, specialised equipment, or both. And even then, there is speculation that the distribution of fat on the body also appears to play a role in mortality risk. While I couldn't [easily] find scholarly articles to support the assertion, the hypothesis is that fat in and around the "greater omentum" (i.e. "beer gut"), encases the internal organs and can lead to health complications. As an interesting side note to this, apparently it also makes surgery very difficult. But, as always, I digress.<br />
<br />
So as it stands, what we should concern ourselves with is body fat percentage, and the most widely-used metric, BMI, doesn't really attempt to approximate this. At this point, I'm tempted to hypothetically ask if there would be a better way, but my distinguished and top-hatted readers have no doubt already read the title of this post, and know darn well that's where I'm going. "I bet it's the waist-to-height ratio!" you're probably yelling at the screen, excitedly and inadvertently popping out your monocle.<br />
<br />
Excellent guess, it is. The waist to height ratio (WHtR, and I have no idea why that's the abbreviation) doesn't concern itself with the weight of the subject at all. The lean waist doesn't tend to fluctuate much with muscular or skeletal structure, so with the exception of very narrow-waisted females, it's a pretty good analog to body fat percentage. That's all there is to the waist to height ratio, by the way. You divide the circumference of your waist by your height (using the same units for both measurements). It's unitless, so you can use centimetres, inches, furlongs, leagues, whatever your heart desires. Just make sure to use the same units. The only point of note is to measure your waist as the figures do in the top of this post. Fashion would define your "waist" as being below the anatomical waist. The anatomical waist is either the narrowest part of your torso, or about an inch above your navel.<br />
<br />
Waist-to-height ratio is also well supported in the literature as a metric of mortality risk, by the way. An excellent review appears in Nutrition Research Reviews (2010), 23, 247–269. The data suggest that, though the WHtR has a couple fringe weaknesses like an inability to predict diabetes mellitus in Taiwanese males, it is overall a much better indicator than BMI. Further, a lot of references pop up with WHtR being a superior metric to BMI when monitoring children's health. Something to think about.<br />
<br />
Finally, it's probably worth discussing what ranges WHtR usually fall in to. The best summary chart I have found is on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waist-to-height_ratio">relevant Wikipedia page</a>:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwM1Ak8NJsCezAVbSec_SR4sNFr3QVOdpAPWJlqWfQuFogPl1r_nmWV-egqg2BtlMxgWXPz0zOQikediDDSjKXKmNL-wVilncWEj6VF7BkgUzxT4wNZcI-BUnTXzy298XMiANTRYfUa8U/s1600/WHtR+wiki.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwM1Ak8NJsCezAVbSec_SR4sNFr3QVOdpAPWJlqWfQuFogPl1r_nmWV-egqg2BtlMxgWXPz0zOQikediDDSjKXKmNL-wVilncWEj6VF7BkgUzxT4wNZcI-BUnTXzy298XMiANTRYfUa8U/s1600/WHtR+wiki.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I'll also mention that an excellent discussion with pointers to great references can be found <a href="http://home.fuse.net/clymer/bmi/">here</a>. So really, the healthy and normal WHtR for people usually falls between 0.42 and 0.50. If you're above that, you may be healthy, but WHtR would suggest that you are at an increased risk of health complications, and you may want to consider action. Similarly, it cautions that should your WHtR fall below 0.42, you are at an increased risk of [albeit different] complications, and you may want to consider action. It is interesting to note that the body requires a certain baseline body fat percentage in order to function properly. If you're curious about the complications of low body fat percentage, read up on body building side effects, it's a little disturbing.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
So there you have it. The evidence would suggest that WHtR is a superior metric to BMI for measuring the health of individuals, and should probably see more use as a result. This is particularly true if you have broad shoulders, a barrel chest, or even wide hips, because your BMI will likely be skewed. Plus, a cloth measuring tape costs a lot less than a bathroom scale, and never needs to be adjusted.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
NM</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Update (2015-03-16): I want to include the latest table on the aforementioned relevant Wikipedia page, because it now contains some new, entertaining entries at the low end.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPlx1iZNSfwYbtW0YHL2dVIMEN8RN-TXl5yKCW8Wy95_L_LWn1rGLdwBAuQr87XG2f9UN0p7EPQr3rVH1x9YIMj368sv1pkUvkEv9xk4r9YAbsPeCCh7XPd-f-Kas_ArkarTn4AVevzAk/s1600/Updatedtable.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPlx1iZNSfwYbtW0YHL2dVIMEN8RN-TXl5yKCW8Wy95_L_LWn1rGLdwBAuQr87XG2f9UN0p7EPQr3rVH1x9YIMj368sv1pkUvkEv9xk4r9YAbsPeCCh7XPd-f-Kas_ArkarTn4AVevzAk/s1600/Updatedtable.png" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-91974030033496592812013-11-18T17:52:00.000-05:002013-11-18T20:50:52.265-05:00Universal Public Transit [MUt2]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/St-Laurent_Station.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/St-Laurent_Station.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">OC Transpo's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OC_Transpo">St. Laurent Station</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In my <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2013/11/my-utopia-mut1.html">last post</a> I discussed the merits of enjoying alcoholic beverages for their deliciousness rather than their psychoactivity. Now, this indeed raises the issue of drinking and driving, which is a legitimate concern. After just one standard alcoholic beverage, your reaction times are significantly diminished. So what do you do? Designated drivers are one solution, but it's rare that people want to be the designated driver. As a brief aside, Schlag has been known to provide free soft drinks to the designate, because they are a class act and thoroughly wonderful. Cabs are expensive, and public transit can at times be sporadic and unreliable. But what if something were to be done about that?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The benefits of public transit include cleaner air, decreased fossil fuel consumption per rider, decreased traffic congestion, lower road maintenance costs per rider, et cetera. As such, it's surprising that cities don't seem to be trying harder to encourage public transit and alternative modes of transportation. Cycling is fantastic when you consider that it offers all of the above benefits as well as being almost a non-factor in road wear since it scales to the fourth power of weight. Since the weight of a bicycle is an order of magnitude less than that of a car, we're talking on the order of ~10,000 times less road wear. In fact, each bicycle trip saves the taxpayer a dollar or so because of this effect, but I digress.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In short, it is in the best interest of cities to promote methods of transportation other than single-occupant driving where possible. Now, couple this with the idea of economies of scale. When the University of Ottawa negotiated the universal bus pass with OC Transpo, the figure they ended on was roughly $350 for the normal eight month school year. This was a deep discount over the already discounted student bus pass rate of $90/month simply because of the scale involved. However, consider that the University comprises roughly 45,000 students in a city of almost one million. When roughly five percent of the population collectively negotiated, the price of the service was less than halved.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now, what if the whole city did it?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I am not an economist, and this is potentially a flight of fancy on my part, but what if instead of charging for transit based on single users, what if the entire city was involved and the price of the pass was built into property taxes? I realise that there will be diminishing returns on the discount for increased pool sizes, but if 5% of the population can negotiate to less than half the original price, I feel one could reasonably assume the cost would come to at least about a quarter of what it is now. Further, I cannot believe that an annual sum of $250 or less would be the deciding factor in whether or not someone could afford to live in a home.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
With a system such as this in place, I would hypothesize (or perhaps "guess" would be a more appropriate term) that annual funding would be more stable than it is now, and planning would be easier because the distribution of potential usership [ideally] becomes that of a population density map. I would also assume that usage frequency would dramatically increase because the cost of the trip is effectively "free," since one needn't go searching for bus tickets or spare change. Also, it allows lower income individuals to travel to and from work without the financial burden of a more expensive bus pass, making it easier to get and keep a job. I can tell you from experience that bus fares aren't financially negligible when you don't have a stable source of income.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I would also imagine that this would have spinoffs on tourism and other economic activity as well. Not only can one easily/cheaply travel to and from work, but one could just as easily travel to that shop that's a few stops down the road, or a tourist could hop on a bus to go, well, anywhere really. To be clear, I assume that this system would mean you could freely hop on a bus, meaning tourists would be free to do so as well. Though I also assume allowing tourists to freely travel on the transit system would generate enough income that it would make the expense well worth it. Further, would a tourist be more likely to travel to a city where they wouldn't have to rent a car and pay for parking? I think it might be a consideration.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Other fringe benefits? In a population that is generally regarded as overweight, it gets people involved in semi-active transport rather than driving, which is more or less completely sedentary. I would imagine service improvements resulting from stable and increased funding would make the trips more pleasant and effective. Another consideration is the cost of parking lots. They're surprisingly expensive, a parking space costs<a href="http://www.vtpi.org/tca/tca0504.pdf"> hundreds to maintain if it's ground-based, and can get into the tens of thousands to maintain in a parking structure</a>. That's a cost that can be diminished with such a transit scheme. And maybe, just maybe, after responsibly enjoying an alcoholic beverage or two, you and your family could simply hop on a bus/subway/LRT to get home rather than having to worry about the hassle of driving.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-22697815208536700062013-11-17T22:25:00.004-05:002013-11-17T23:00:16.023-05:00My Utopia [MUt1]<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxaI-vWeaXegmus8SPAWXwx2CPxU04YCAdJFWIYN0Nng1hD4X1xGvKqUxYW6OxM4VDq_PHGLi15_zlee-92JWa1rbpUuSr8Gf17jk3sAP5JqDcY9c5KBkh6JCwY1ZqRtBYLLKhdagMf4Q/s1600/Hans_Holbein,_the_Younger_-_Sir_Thomas_More_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxaI-vWeaXegmus8SPAWXwx2CPxU04YCAdJFWIYN0Nng1hD4X1xGvKqUxYW6OxM4VDq_PHGLi15_zlee-92JWa1rbpUuSr8Gf17jk3sAP5JqDcY9c5KBkh6JCwY1ZqRtBYLLKhdagMf4Q/s400/Hans_Holbein,_the_Younger_-_Sir_Thomas_More_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg" width="321" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Thomas_More">Sir Thomas More</a>, who apparently coined the term "Utopia," and apparent "Mr. McGrumpypants."</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
So,<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I've found myself talking a lot about ideas lately, which is often a sign that I need to blog about something, because for some reason I feel better once it's been hammered out and available to the general public. It's not logical, but it's a reproducible phenomenon so I'll go with it.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'm sure we've all had ideas we think would change the world, our country or even our city or neighbourhood for the better. I, too, have these and shall jot down a couple. I've gone ahead and tagged the title as [MUt1] so that there will be a handy label available should I decide to write down more ideas for improving things.<br />
<br />
<b>The Public House:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I'm certain that many of you have attended a so-called public house, potentially without knowing what it actually is. This is where the "pub" gets its name. A public house, as opposed to a private house, is a place in which friends and/or neighbours can come in, eat, drink and generally be merry. In fact, it can (and in Britain and Ireland has been known to), function as a makeshift community centre where the locals or regulars may gather, celebrate, discuss, or even mourn together as a group. This could, if executed properly, fix a problem I see with North American society.<br />
<br />
The drinking of alcoholic beverages is an ancient tradition, and I'm not being hyperbolic. It has been <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer#History">widely hypothesized</a> that beer was instrumental in the building of Western society. In an era where microbial life was ill-understood and water-borne illness was likely rampant, beer offered a safe drinking water source due to the boiling of the brew prior to fermentation. The irony here is that the microbial life form yeast was used to out-compete and combat other hazardous microorganisms without a solid understanding of either, but I digress.<br />
<br />
The practice appears to date back almost 11,000 years, near the beginning of agriculture and civilisation as we know it. In fact, beer was so ingrained in our society, we depended upon it so heavily that individuals of Western descent have increased alcohol dehydrogenase concentrations in their gut (I'll clarify that this is the more colloquial use of the word "gut" because I don't actually know where it is). Alcohol dehydrogenase is a catalyst (or "enzyme" because the catalyst is a protein and we CLEARLY need to memorize more science-y words to maintain exclusivity), which breaks down potentially-toxic ethanol into more biologically compatible or innocuous chemical species. Let me reiterate that a little more simply, over the course of about 11ka, the blink of an eye from an evolutionary standpoint, our bodies changed to handle alcohol (in the West anyway, in the East the boiled beverage of choice was/is tea). Either that, or those of us with better physiological tolerances were more likely to thrive and reproduce, as per the <a href="http://vodkaandequations.blogspot.ca/2011/08/genetic-algorithms.html">genetic algorithm</a> that is life. Either way, beer is so important to us as a species that it changed us at the same time it helped shape our societies. <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/beer-makes-1-out-of-100-canadian-jobs-1.2415432">It's still helping, by the way</a>. Beer represents 1% of Canada's GDP, and every dollar spent on beer becomes roughly $1.12 for municipal, provincial and federal governments. For a full hour of fascinating, beer-related discussion, <a href="http://www.stuffyoushouldknow.com/podcasts/how-beer-works/">this podcast</a> is highly recommended.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn-ON844U4Aoh_Ljw9IWuRPeTs0Ijw999qZI1fJz1jHqx4lvhsIa56dJKl6bTYlK8NQaPnthcCEP0aZ-SNwGmDglY6xIwfu6xMHcYAe8TPje8hIyfXfrwyAFubx1y4r_TjH94-pNUs89w/s1600/IMAG0743.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn-ON844U4Aoh_Ljw9IWuRPeTs0Ijw999qZI1fJz1jHqx4lvhsIa56dJKl6bTYlK8NQaPnthcCEP0aZ-SNwGmDglY6xIwfu6xMHcYAe8TPje8hIyfXfrwyAFubx1y4r_TjH94-pNUs89w/s400/IMAG0743.jpg" width="238" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">My cousin and I once participated together in this millennia-old tradition. It was delicious.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Now to the problem which I believe the public house could solve. See that beer pictured above? It was delicious, it was shared among friends, and it was thoroughly enjoyed. It wasn't used solely as a means of getting drunk. It sure could have been, and it would have been cheap, too. You can brew about three standard drinks for the price of purchasing one at the Beer Store. In North America, it seems that we view beer this way, however. I remember seeing a lot of commercials that would have me believe that beer is only brought out at parties, or when large numbers of friends have congregated. Never is it advertised as an alternative to carbonated soft drinks, despite the fact that it is much healthier. Molson-Coors won't tell you that a nice, hoppy IPA is a perfect pairing with a strong-flavoured hamburger. No, beer is marketed as a party beverage.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
What is the consequence of this? Well, oddly, in a university town where one would assume parties are far more pervasive, you will find more people that appreciate beer as an interesting beverage and not as a means of intoxication. Places like my hometown in the middle of rural Ontario haven't quite figured this out, and their knowledge is based more on marketing. This is why I will get strange looks if I order a beer to accompany my lunch, or I can expect a strange look from boomers if I sit down to enjoy a beer in the afternoon whereas they wouldn't bat an eye if I had coffee.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is a problem.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is a problem because we, generally as a society, approach beer as nothing more than an intoxicant. Prohibition is the norm when discussing minors. Taxation is high to discourage drinking as a behaviour (<a href="http://sciencenordic.com/three-beers-day-keep-doctor-away">did you know that those who consume a drink or three a day see a variety of health benefits?</a>). Regulation is heavy. And all this when moderate consumption (and the key is moderation, binge drinking is defined as the consumption of four or more standard drinks), is a perfectly healthy behaviour. Now, guess what happens when we approach beer as an intoxicant and nothing more? Go watch a frosh week and you'll figure it out pretty quickly. People leave the relatively supervised environment that is home, and they go overboard. Not only do they go overboard, but they will associate this going overboard with fun and good times and will learn it as a behaviour. This behaviour will likely last into adulthood, and beer will remain a beverage of intoxication.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now, what if we had a place to introduce our children to responsible drinking? I would say that it could happen in the home, but North American society doesn't seem to be working with that approach. Perhaps we could introduce a venue in which children could witness responsible drinking. Having a beer or a glass of wine with a meal, and leaving it at that. Or perhaps having a conversation over a hard beverage rather than a soft, or caffeinated one. I'll tell you that soft drinks are very sugary, and can ruin your sense of taste between bites of a meal. A hoppy IPA will hit you with a quick punch of flavour, and then leave your palate cleansed for the next bite of your burger. An amber ale often has a gentle hop to it, and a mild sweetness that goes extraordinarily well with a plate of fish and chips. Granted, a nice sweet soft drink will go very well with a heavily salted pizza, but this is a use of extremes to negate one another. But I digress, a place in which children could see drinking not as a means to excuse oneself from buying crack, but as a compliment to a meal or a delicious beverage on its own, I believe, would produce a tremendous social benefit.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And here, I will compliment a couple true public houses. During the day, I wouldn't hesitate taking a child or family member to the Beaufort Pub in Belleville. The décor is cozy and it is quiet and conducive to conversation. The food is good and there is a nice selection of beers to accompany a tasty meal. In fact, when I head down to the Beaufort, I have run into friends, family members, or even people I know through Church and haven't seen in ages. It's an excellent spot to hang out, and I am genuinely happy to do so.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Then, there is my favourite pub of all, the Sandy Hill Lounge and Grill. SHLG, or Schlag as I call it (a misspelling originally, but later rationalized and defended), is the finest example of a pub I have come found. On a Sunday afternoon it is not unusual to see a retired married couple enjoying a meal next to a family and across from some University of Ottawa students and alumni. All are welcome and it's not weird. Were I to see a child in a bar (a place that goes to lengths such as increasing music volume to the point where conversation is impossible, causing the patrons to drink more), I might be concerned, but not at Schlag. The walls are plastered with historical images of Ottawa and the Sandy Hill neighbourhood, the home of University of Ottawa, many embassies, and the historic Laurier House. They have a wonderful beer selection, and a dedication to pub-style food that is inspiring. There are the normal daily specials, as well as weekly specials which the chef has concocted. They go to the point where they offer home-made ketchup to serve alongside the usual Heinz, just in case you prefer one or the other. It is also the establishment that introduced me to sriracha, and thus I will be eternally grateful to them. The German expression "mit schlag" means "with whipped cream." The Sandy Hill Lounge and Grill is the "schlag" of life, it takes whatever it comes with, and makes it just a little bit better. That is why, after originally misspelling, I will continue to refer to it as Schlag, and wish them many decades of prosperity.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So that was a lot of digression, so I'll briefly outline my point. We treat beer and wine as a means of intoxication, and it shows in our behaviour. Alcoholic beverages can play a normal and healthy part in our lives, and it should be treated as such. I feel the best first step is to lead by example and drink responsibly together, as a community, in front of our children. I'm sure that many a Maude Flanders is currently shouting in dismay, but to lead by example, one must involve children. A public house is a perfect venue for this, and I would love to see a better pub culture in Canada.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
P.S. Naturally, drinking and driving is a hazard of increased societal alcohol consumption, but that will actually tie into my next Utopian topic. At over a thousand words, I'll cut this off here. And not proofread because, as is apparently the norm, I'm now tired and want to go to bed.</div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1608489854219717594.post-58836001315247789852013-11-02T02:41:00.002-04:002013-11-03T20:52:23.356-05:00A Brief Foray Into Fancy Stats<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi059VjmbDiPcyiO5w-38oH6xQEl1onzTUDWfh1EjZ53dTMQ66-CdL9HX2jSEafugSjk6rNa4bfVtGMIjDd-T-yXEdQRyhAEdlfPJcxZ8zt56zrh6r8Ci9VF4ct2gZCL0SDTd096D1h9yw/s1600/IMAG2911.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi059VjmbDiPcyiO5w-38oH6xQEl1onzTUDWfh1EjZ53dTMQ66-CdL9HX2jSEafugSjk6rNa4bfVtGMIjDd-T-yXEdQRyhAEdlfPJcxZ8zt56zrh6r8Ci9VF4ct2gZCL0SDTd096D1h9yw/s400/IMAG2911.jpg" width="238" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">What happens when I should be working on other things.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
So,<br />
<br />
I must be back in school, because once again I find myself unable to sleep because I'm busy thinking about something. Regular readers will recall that this was the reason I started the blog in the first place. So now, at 01:23, let's go into why I can't sleep. Fair warning: if you don't necessarily like or care about hockey, go ahead and skip this one.<br />
<br />
I was partly inspired by <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/2013/6/20/mythbusters-tyler-bozak-edition">this post by Cam Charron</a> (all my figures are from stats.hockeyanalysis.com as well), and recent events. Tyler Bozak is injured and Nazem Kadri has taken his place as the Toronto Maple Leafs' first line centreman. In his article, Cam states that the common assertion that Bozak and all-star winger Phil "The Thrill" Kessel is simply not true. He goes on to point out that the numbers would indicate that Grabovski actually has better chemistry with Kessel. That, combined with the current fantastic output of Kadri, Kessel and James van Riemsdyk (JvR), led me to question whether or not there would be a way to easily quantify how much better players are depending on their centreman. That led to the scribbles you see above, which are more neatly recorded below:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYFN_m2ZDL5V-MKbxa04fGpyC3RP6KgdbEo96yrG8TsEPvYWM3tytHAodvsU88uoZMy86fWiI6jiuPsEZ-cGNSTD3bRachmwnPg1D9bJ-LPmVqM-pJEePI-pyFhwJ0rgnNW7y8V_JkxFQ/s1600/hackey.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="131" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYFN_m2ZDL5V-MKbxa04fGpyC3RP6KgdbEo96yrG8TsEPvYWM3tytHAodvsU88uoZMy86fWiI6jiuPsEZ-cGNSTD3bRachmwnPg1D9bJ-LPmVqM-pJEePI-pyFhwJ0rgnNW7y8V_JkxFQ/s400/hackey.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
While many of my readers will have no problem reading that, and will doubtless find mistakes I made, I'll break that top line down a little bit. Stated simply, I assume that over the course of a season, a player's total output (goals, assists, points, what have you), could be represented as the sum of his performances with various centremen. More complexly stated, a player's performance is the linear combination of his performances with different centremen. The second line says more or less the same thing, but is specific to the points scored, and time with centreman <i>i</i>. The logical leaps start here. I say that the total metric achieved with that player would equal the product of the time spent with that centre, T, the [hypothetical] basal scoring rate, B, and the coefficient C. That means that, I assume, there is some rate at which the player in question would normally generate some metric, this will be multiplied by some coefficient depending on who the centre is and will also be time-weighted. Now, in a perfect world I would have a giant dataset and would simply plug the above equation into gnuplot and use its fit function to generate all relevant B and C values. Unfortunately, I don't have access to a large data set, and don't really have the programming ability to mine stats from the NHL. So I assume that B is equal to the basal, or average scoring rate of a given player (their total metric divided by their total time-on-ice (TOI)). I don't know whether or not a hypothetical B would differ from an average scoring rate, but the more I think about it, the more I think it would be the same.<br />
<br />
In any case, we can see how to easily isolate a Centreman Coefficient from the data. This data, for the record, is from the Leafs' 2012-2013 season, which is old and only represents a half-season, but is still young enough to be relevant to today's roster. Let's take a look.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 467.5pt;" valign="top" width="623"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Table 1: Effect of Centres (left) on Wingers’
point production expressed as coefficient.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Player<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Kessel<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Lupul<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">JvR<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">King MacArthur<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Bozak<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.9747<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.8027<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.8990<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.8613<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Grabovski<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.2205<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.0000<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.6356<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.5637<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Kadri<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.4784<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.9312<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.8918<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.3539<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 467.5pt;" valign="top" width="623"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Table 2: Effect of Centres (left) on Wingers’ Corsi
expressed as coefficient.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Player<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Kessel<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Lupul<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">JvR<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">King MacArthur<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Bozak<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.0509<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.2619<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.9971<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.2195<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Grabovski<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.8225<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.8974<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.8681<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.9794<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Kadri<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.8967<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.8800<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.0587<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 93.5pt;" valign="top" width="125"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.0456<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
I'll briefly point out to those of you not familiar with #fancystats that Corsi is simply the difference between shots for and shots against a player's team while he is on the ice. It also correlates <b>very</b> well with puck possession times. That's why it's used, because the NHL doesn't track offensive zone time, but shots are readily recorded. Go figure. I'll also note that I have apparently suffered amnesia about the whole of the Leafs' last season, because I don't remember who anyone played with, so I went with four wingers and three centres. Also, if you're not familiar with coefficients, look at it this way: in the case of Lupul, he was scoring at roughly double his normal rate when centred by Bozak, and 0 times his normal rate when centred by Grabovski. You could also call it a multiplier. So when centred by Bozak, Lupul is like Twopuls, and like no Lupuls when centred by Grabovski (by the by, I'm very tired...).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Conclusions? Well, barring the fact that I shouldn't have included Lupul's data because he wasn't around very much last season, we can see a couple things. One, and for reasons I can't really understand, it seems like Corsi and point production are inversely related in some cases. The only explanation I can offer is that your Corsi might suffer if you rush out and score, and are pulled off the ice, but other than that, I've got nothing. But then, the Leafs are especially challenging that way. One surprising thing is that, which point production appears to be supressed by Bozak, he improves the Corsi of his team mates when he is on the ice. Or rather, his wingers put up better-than-normal Corsi ratings when he is on the ice. This isn't to be expected, because Bozak is routinely ripped on for his Corsi. Kessel and JvR really liked playing with Grabovski, though their Corsi figures were suppressed at the same time. As for Kadri as a centre last year, I'm as confused as you are. I just... yeah.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Some other notes of interest involve disregarding the whole linear combination thing and just looking at how players perform with others. The data led to some hilarious conclusions like how different goalies correlated with different metric production. For the five minutes JvR played with Steckel, his point, goal and Corsi coefficients were 5.7, 11, and 2.4 respectively. Kessel did very well when Fraser was on the ice, his point and Corsi coefficients were 2.2 and 2.7. Also, Grabovski and Naz actually played together for 9 minutes, Grabovski scored twice and Naz recorded two assists in that time, and it led to similar hilariously large numbers.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I'll also say that while I can't find the piece of paper where I stashed the information I recorded while dickering with this idea, it appears that Bozak's point coefficient for Kessel was about 1.4 in the 9-10 season and has steadily decreased as the years go by. I'd be curious to see what happened with the Corsi coefficient over the same period, but I'm tired and I'm not going to do it right now. Also, considering Kessel for this year thus far, Bozak's point and Corsi coefficients 0.97 and 1.01 while Naz's are 2.01 and 0.76. Again, why is point production so high when Corsi is so low?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So what to make of all of this? Sure beats me, I don't even think the results are statistically significant. I think these coefficients are a nice and simple number to compare how wingers perform with a given centre. Or even another winger, or goalie, or whatever you feel like calculating. If anyone is interested, I can always forward the .xlsx I have, though you also have the equations above, which is really all you need. I'd say I hope you all find this terribly interesting, but frankly I'm happy to have gotten this down in a semi-organized fashion, and can hopefully go to sleep now.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
NM</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
P.S. Is that the first equation on Vodka and Equations?<br />
P.P.S. All data was for 5 on 5 situations.</div>
NMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14818709669688421239noreply@blogger.com0